NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
AI Compute Core
$215.20
May 8, 2026 · Mkt Cap $5.23T
52W: $83.89 – $214.18
⏸ HOLD INTO MAY 20 PRINT
Add zone: $195–210
AI infrastructure's primary supplier. FY26 $215.9B revenue (+65% YoY). Blackwell fully ramped; Rubin ramps H2 2026. Q1 FY27 ($78B guide) reports May 20 — the critical gate.
Price
$215
TTM P/E
43.6×
Sector avg 34.7×
Fwd P/E
24.5×
PEG 0.65
Rev Growth
+73%
Q4 FY26 YoY
Gross Margin
71.1%
GAAP TTM
FCF Margin
~45%
$96.6B TTM
Q1 FY27 Guide
$78B
±2%; May 20
Next Earnings
May 20
Q1 FY27 · Confirmed
Valuation vs Growth
A
Fwd P/E 24.5× on ~70% growth and 75% gross margin is the best setup in megacap AI. 3Y/5Y avg P/E 63×/67× — current is steep historical discount. PEG 0.65 — lowest in universe. Q4 FY26 $68.1B, +73% YoY. Data Center $62.3B, +75%.
Justified by growth. Not stretched; discount to own history.
Fundamentals vs Hype
A+
Gross margin 71% (75% guided Q1 FY27). FCF $96.6B. Estimate revisions UP across 36 sell-side analysts. Data Center = 90%+ of revenue. China DC revenue zeroed ($50B TAM impaired). AI demand confirmed — $500B Blackwell/Rubin customer commitments through 2026.
Grounded. Best verified fundamentals in the AI universe.
Institutional vs Retail
A
66.4% institutional; 5,605 13F filers. Hedge funds net +4.15% aggregate Q1 2026. Top holders: Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street. Short interest <1%. Jensen Huang $2.9B+ cumulative insider sales under 10b5-1 (programmatic). Retail "Extremely Bullish" Stocktwits.
Institutionally driven with retail tailwind.
Verdict
HOLD into May 20 earnings. Goldman expects $80B and $1.86 EPS (above consensus $78B/$1.74) but explicitly notes "bar for outperformance is relatively high." Wait for the print. On a clean beat with strong Q2 guide ≥$87B and Rubin H2 confirmation: deploy in $195–225 zone. On a miss or guide-down: $180-195 re-entry zone.
Target: $195–210 (pre-print) · $215–225 acceptable on confirmed beat
⚠ Key Risks
- 01China DC revenue permanently impaired — $50B addressable TAM gone absent policy reversal
- 02Rubin H2 2026 ramp slip — any commentary suggesting delays would compress multiple 20%+
- 03CoWoS packaging bottleneck at TSMC — single point of failure; TSMC capex constrained
- 04Hyperscaler capex digestion — any single MSFT/META/GOOG/AMZN cut cascades to all AI names simultaneously
- 05Insider selling — Huang new 10b5-1 plan authorises 6M more shares; aggregate $3.3B+ sold since 2024