ALAB
Astera Labs, Inc.
PCIe / CXL Fabric Switching & Signal Conditioning — AI Networking Layer
$207.35
Mkt Cap ~$35.84B ⚠ est.
52W: $81.14 – $262.90 1
Next earnings: 4 Aug 2026 (Q2 2026) ⚠ est.
👁 Watch
Entry zone: $175–$200
The market treats ALAB as a Blackwell-cycle beneficiary decelerating into a hardware margin transition; it misses that Scorpio-X is not a retimer successor but a PCIe fabric switch — an "anchor socket" that locks hyperscalers into ALAB's interconnect stack as AI cluster scale-up density rises. PCIe is optimised for GPU-to-GPU communication and memory-level workloads inside the rack; Ethernet is optimised for reach across racks and WAN. These are not substitutes in scale-up AI clusters. The Amazon warrant — a $6.5B purchase commitment at $142.82/share through Feb 2033, vesting by purchase tranches — is a structural demand anchor, not a short-cycle PO. Q1 2026 revenue of $308.4M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ) and Q2 guidance of $355–365M confirm that Q4 2025's deceleration was a transition-quarter artefact, not structural decay. With 10+ customer engagements for Scorpio-X and initial volumes shipping, the anchor-socket ramp is underway.
Fwd P/E (NTM)
69.76×
PEG 0.97 (g=72% NTM)
Rev YoY
+93%
Q1 2026 actual · $308.4M
Gross Margin
76.3%
GAAP · Q1 2026
FCF Margin
21.7% · $67M
Q1 2026 · FY25 was 33.1%7
EPS Revision
↑~17 / ↓0
⚠ est. · thin history
Next Earnings
4 Aug 2026
Q2 2026 ⚠ est.
AI Rev %
~100%
Pure-play AI infrastructure
DC Rev YoY
+93%
Q1 2026 · all revenue AI
Insider Sells
~$87M
CEO/COO/dir · 7 May · 10b5-1 6
Thesis Durability
B+
Variant perception: Consensus reads ALAB as a Blackwell-cycle play decelerating into a margin transition. The sharper read: Scorpio-X is an anchor socket in the architectural sense — once a hyperscaler commits to ALAB's PCIe fabric switch, switching costs are high and dollar content per AI accelerator steps up materially. Retimers (Scorpio-P, 15% of Q4 2025 revenue) are replaceable; fabric switches (Scorpio-X) are not. The "10-plus customer engagements" and Amazon warrant confirm this is a platform bet, not a product sale.3
PCIe vs Ethernet moat: PCIe is optimised for GPU-to-GPU communication and memory-level workloads inside the rack. Ethernet is optimised for reach (inter-rack, WAN). These are distinct, non-substitutable roles in scale-up AI clusters. ALAB has few credible PCIe fabric switch competitors at scale — Broadcom and Marvell compete in Ethernet switching at different density and latency profiles.
Revenue quality: Q1 2026 $308.4M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ) with Q2 guided $355–365M (+15% QoQ). PCIe Gen 6 revenue now accounts for >1/3 of total Q1 revenue — the industry transition to Gen 6 is accelerating faster than consensus modelled.7 Scorpio product mix is undergoing a structural step-change: Scorpio (P+X combined) was only ~15% of total revenue in CY2025; management guides X-Series to exceed P-Series revenue by year-end and for Scorpio to become the largest product line, targeting ~50% mix by end-CY26.7 Scorpio X-Series 320 Lane Smart Fabric Switch launched — 5.12 TB/s bidirectional bandwidth in a single ASIC, 2× GPU radix in a single hop, enabling one switch to connect 320 accelerators (initial volumes shipping Q1, full volume production H2 2026). The Q4 2025 deceleration (sequential growth slowing to 7.7% QoQ guided at the time) was a transition-quarter artefact — accounts receivable +94% QoQ and inventory +14% QoQ in Q4 2025 were forward-looking demand signals that preceded the Q1 beat by a quarter.
Bear stress: If AI architectures shift from scale-up (dense intra-rack PCIe) toward scale-out (Ethernet-dominated inter-rack), ALAB's TAM shrinks structurally. A Blackwell successor with integrated in-package switching eliminates ALAB's switching TAM for that generation before Scorpio-X diversification is complete.
PCIe vs Ethernet moat: PCIe is optimised for GPU-to-GPU communication and memory-level workloads inside the rack. Ethernet is optimised for reach (inter-rack, WAN). These are distinct, non-substitutable roles in scale-up AI clusters. ALAB has few credible PCIe fabric switch competitors at scale — Broadcom and Marvell compete in Ethernet switching at different density and latency profiles.
Revenue quality: Q1 2026 $308.4M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ) with Q2 guided $355–365M (+15% QoQ). PCIe Gen 6 revenue now accounts for >1/3 of total Q1 revenue — the industry transition to Gen 6 is accelerating faster than consensus modelled.7 Scorpio product mix is undergoing a structural step-change: Scorpio (P+X combined) was only ~15% of total revenue in CY2025; management guides X-Series to exceed P-Series revenue by year-end and for Scorpio to become the largest product line, targeting ~50% mix by end-CY26.7 Scorpio X-Series 320 Lane Smart Fabric Switch launched — 5.12 TB/s bidirectional bandwidth in a single ASIC, 2× GPU radix in a single hop, enabling one switch to connect 320 accelerators (initial volumes shipping Q1, full volume production H2 2026). The Q4 2025 deceleration (sequential growth slowing to 7.7% QoQ guided at the time) was a transition-quarter artefact — accounts receivable +94% QoQ and inventory +14% QoQ in Q4 2025 were forward-looking demand signals that preceded the Q1 beat by a quarter.
Bear stress: If AI architectures shift from scale-up (dense intra-rack PCIe) toward scale-out (Ethernet-dominated inter-rack), ALAB's TAM shrinks structurally. A Blackwell successor with integrated in-package switching eliminates ALAB's switching TAM for that generation before Scorpio-X diversification is complete.
Structurally sound; anchor-socket thesis requires H2 2026 confirmation. PCIe-vs-Ethernet architectural distinction is real and underappreciated. Scorpio-X engagement breadth (10+ customers) supports the platform thesis. Key catalyst: confirmed non-NVDA platform design wins by late 2026.
Business Quality
B+
Margins are exceptional: GAAP gross margin 76.3% (Q1 2026), non-GAAP operating margin 36.2% — software-company-level margins for a semiconductor business. FCF margin 33.1% for FY2025 on $281.8M FCF confirms cash generation quality. $1.19B cash, zero debt — can self-fund Scorpio-X ramp without dilution.2
Amazon warrant as structural signal: A $6.5B purchase commitment at $142.82/share through Feb 2033, vesting in tranches by purchase volume, is not passive confidence — it is Amazon co-investing in ALAB's roadmap. Each vesting tranche directly ties Amazon's capex spend to ALAB product intake, creating a multi-year revenue floor not visible in consensus estimates.
Hardware margin transition: Scorpio-X transitions ALAB from selling high-margin silicon retimers to fabric switches, which carry lower margins in initial production until scaled. GAAP operating margin guided to dip below 20% in H1 2026 (vs a sustained >20% base for the prior three quarters) — a ramp artefact, not structural decay. Watch for GAAP OM recovery toward 22–24% in H2 2026 as Scorpio-X scales.
EPS beat trajectory: Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS $0.58 — smallest beat since IPO (13.7% above estimate). Q1 2026 actual $0.61 — reacceleration. GAAP/non-GAAP gap (~1,600 bps) reflects SBC intensity; should decline as revenue scale improves.
Platform expansion wins — confirmed Q1 2026:
NVLink Fusion: ALAB has a confirmed design win for NVLink Fusion-type devices in collaboration with NVIDIA and a hyperscaler, with revenue expected to start in 2027. This is protocol-agnosticism made concrete — ALAB participates even in NVLink-dominant architectures by bridging to PCIe/UALink ecosystems in hybrid racks.7
CXL / Memory: Leo CXL memory controller is in early production ramp on Microsoft Azure M-Series virtual machines. Additionally, a new custom design win for a KV Cache offload application was captured in Q1, with shipments expected in 2027. This extends ALAB from accelerator fabric into the memory-management layer of inference.7
Amazon warrant as structural signal: A $6.5B purchase commitment at $142.82/share through Feb 2033, vesting in tranches by purchase volume, is not passive confidence — it is Amazon co-investing in ALAB's roadmap. Each vesting tranche directly ties Amazon's capex spend to ALAB product intake, creating a multi-year revenue floor not visible in consensus estimates.
Hardware margin transition: Scorpio-X transitions ALAB from selling high-margin silicon retimers to fabric switches, which carry lower margins in initial production until scaled. GAAP operating margin guided to dip below 20% in H1 2026 (vs a sustained >20% base for the prior three quarters) — a ramp artefact, not structural decay. Watch for GAAP OM recovery toward 22–24% in H2 2026 as Scorpio-X scales.
EPS beat trajectory: Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS $0.58 — smallest beat since IPO (13.7% above estimate). Q1 2026 actual $0.61 — reacceleration. GAAP/non-GAAP gap (~1,600 bps) reflects SBC intensity; should decline as revenue scale improves.
Platform expansion wins — confirmed Q1 2026:
NVLink Fusion: ALAB has a confirmed design win for NVLink Fusion-type devices in collaboration with NVIDIA and a hyperscaler, with revenue expected to start in 2027. This is protocol-agnosticism made concrete — ALAB participates even in NVLink-dominant architectures by bridging to PCIe/UALink ecosystems in hybrid racks.7
CXL / Memory: Leo CXL memory controller is in early production ramp on Microsoft Azure M-Series virtual machines. Additionally, a new custom design win for a KV Cache offload application was captured in Q1, with shipments expected in 2027. This extends ALAB from accelerator fabric into the memory-management layer of inference.7
Form 4 — Insider sells, 7 May 2026 (10b5-1 plans est. Dec 2025):
CEO Jitendra Mohan trust: ~139,951 shares · ~$28.4M
COO Sanjay Bhatt trusts: ~230,639 shares · ~$46.8M
Director Christoph Dyckerhoff: ~12,499 shares · ~$2.5M
Additional trust sales: ~49,361 shares · ~$10.0M
Total cluster ~$87M · all 10b5-1 plans established Dec 2025 — plan-based, not opportunistic. ⚠ est. — verify via SEC EDGAR sec.gov
CEO Jitendra Mohan trust: ~139,951 shares · ~$28.4M
COO Sanjay Bhatt trusts: ~230,639 shares · ~$46.8M
Director Christoph Dyckerhoff: ~12,499 shares · ~$2.5M
Additional trust sales: ~49,361 shares · ~$10.0M
Total cluster ~$87M · all 10b5-1 plans established Dec 2025 — plan-based, not opportunistic. ⚠ est. — verify via SEC EDGAR sec.gov
Outstanding financial profile; insider sells are plan-based, not informational. 10b5-1 plan establishment in Dec 2025 (pre-Q1 2026 earnings) removes the informational edge concern. Cash generation quality and balance sheet strength are the highest in the AI Chips category.
Entry Price Discipline
C+
Multiples at current price: Fwd P/E 69.76× (GuruFocus) vs semiconductor sector median 36.79× — trading at ~1.9× sector median. PEG 0.97 at 72% NTM growth is technically below 1.0, but assumes the growth rate holds. Per the grading rubric, 1.5–2× sector median = C+.4
Distance from entry zone: At $207.35, ALAB trades 3.7% above the top of the $175–$200 entry zone — not extreme, but outside the zone. Any macro compression, semiconductor sentiment rotation, or minor guidance miss creates the entry opportunity. The zone is closer than it appears.
Analyst consensus: Avg analyst PT $230–242, 11–17% above current price1 — a genuine improvement vs the prior analysis where targets were below current price. Earnings growth has outrun the share price rise; the valuation case has improved without a change in the stock price trend.
Distance from entry zone: At $207.35, ALAB trades 3.7% above the top of the $175–$200 entry zone — not extreme, but outside the zone. Any macro compression, semiconductor sentiment rotation, or minor guidance miss creates the entry opportunity. The zone is closer than it appears.
Short interest 11.11% of float — up from 8.43% at prior analysis, as of most recent settlement period May 2026. Active, informed shorts have added into the post-Q1 rally. Not a thesis dispute — a price-level valuation bet. Creates squeeze fuel on a Q2 beat and amplifies downside on any guidance miss. ⚠ Source: Fintel.io / Nasdaq.com
52W position: At $207, ALAB sits 21% below the 52W high of $262.90 and 155% above the 52W low of $81.14. Post-Q1 earnings rally (+8.76% on 5 May 2026) but no ATH retest — room to compress toward entry zone on macro pressure.Analyst consensus: Avg analyst PT $230–242, 11–17% above current price1 — a genuine improvement vs the prior analysis where targets were below current price. Earnings growth has outrun the share price rise; the valuation case has improved without a change in the stock price trend.
Trading 3.7% above the $175–$200 entry zone. Fwd P/E at 1.9× sector median warrants C+. Short interest rise signals informed valuation pressure. At $175–$200, bull/bear risk-reward is materially better than at current price.
Verdict — Watch · Entry zone $175–$200
ALAB's thesis has materially strengthened from the Q4 2025 read-through: Scorpio-X is now confirmed shipping in initial volumes with 10+ customer engagements, the Amazon warrant ($6.5B commitment vesting through 2033) is a structural demand anchor not in consensus estimates, and Q1 2026's $308.4M (+93% YoY) resolved Q4 2025's deceleration as a transition artefact rather than structural decay. The PCIe-vs-Ethernet architectural distinction — PCIe for intra-rack GPU-to-GPU at scale-up density, Ethernet for reach — creates a moat that consensus does not fully price. This is not a retimer company decelerating; it is a PCIe fabric platform transitioning to anchor-socket status, with a hyperscaler demand floor from the Amazon warrant. The reason to watch rather than add: at $207, fwd P/E 69.76× with short interest 11.11% and rising leaves no margin of safety against any execution slip. The entry zone of $175–$200 provides that margin and sits only 3.7% below current price.
No position at current price. Initiate 1–2% NLV at $175–$200 on pullback (starter). Add to 3–5% NLV if Q2 2026 confirms acceleration ($360M+ revenue, GAAP GM held ≥75%). Maximum 8% NLV for high-conviction sizing — requires one more earnings confirmation at scale before adding aggressively.
Opportunity-cost check
▾
vs CSPX
CSPX's blended ~17× P/E cannot access ALAB's PCIe fabric switch exposure at meaningful weight. The specific edge: 76% gross margins, 93% YoY revenue growth, and structural demand anchoring via Amazon warrant create a compounding profile that no index replicates at useful concentration. Edge over CSPX is clearly present at the $175–$200 entry zone; at $207 the edge exists but the margin of safety is thin.
vs current holdings
ALAB occupies the AI networking/interconnect layer — distinct from MU (DRAM/NAND memory), NOW/PLTR (enterprise SaaS), META/GOOGL (software/advertising), and AVGO (custom silicon/DSPs). No factor overlap with any current holding. A 3–5% NLV allocation adds PCIe fabric exposure not currently represented in the active book. Competes only with undeployed cash, not any existing position.
Thesis-breakers
▾
- 01 Q2 2026 revenue below $330M (guidance midpoint $360M) by 4 Aug 2026: a miss of this magnitude signals PCIe Gen 6 ramp and Scorpio-X initial shipments are not sustaining, invalidating the anchor-socket acceleration thesis at current multiples.
- 02 GAAP gross margin drops below 72% in any quarter through FY27: the 76% GM is the quality anchor justifying the premium multiple. Compression to 70–72% signals competitive pricing pressure or hardware-mix deterioration that removes the margin of safety in the bear DCF scenario.
- 03 NVDA announces integrated PCIe Gen 6 switching in the Blackwell successor architecture by H1 2027 before ALAB has confirmed at least two non-NVDA platform design wins at meaningful revenue: eliminates the primary switching TAM before architectural diversification is achieved.
Key risks
▾
- 01 Short interest 11.11% and rising: Active, informed shorts have added from 8.43% since the prior analysis — a price-level valuation bet, not a thesis dispute. Creates squeeze fuel on a Q2 beat and amplifies downside on any guidance miss. Do not initiate a large position before Q2 confirmation at current multiples.
- 02 Scorpio-X hardware margin trough H1 2026: Transitioning from high-margin silicon retimers to fabric switches implies GAAP operating margin dips below 20% in H1 2026. If the trough extends into H2 2026 due to OpEx ramp outpacing ASP uplift, EPS misses could keep the multiple compressed even on revenue beats.
- 03 Architecture generation risk: Blackwell successor (expected sampling 2026/2027) could integrate PCIe switching in-package, eliminating ALAB's switching TAM for that generation. Design-win qualification cycles run 12–18 months — any slip creates a revenue gap at the transition. Scorpio-X anchor-socket status must be re-established per GPU generation.
- 04 Customer concentration — Amazon warrant as double-edged signal: The $6.5B warrant is a demand anchor but also signals potential concentration. If Amazon's share of 2025 revenue exceeds 40%, any slowdown in Amazon's AI capex or diversification to in-house interconnect hits ALAB disproportionately. The warrant vesting structure tied to purchase volumes creates a demand cliff risk if Amazon's AI infrastructure spend decelerates.
- 05 Competitive entry — Broadcom, Marvell, hyperscaler in-house: If PCIe scale-up networking proves as critical as the anchor-socket thesis argues, Broadcom and Marvell have the engineering depth to attempt entry. Hyperscaler in-house silicon programs (Google TPU, AWS Trainium) could partially route around ALAB's switching TAM over a 3-year horizon. ALAB's moat is execution speed and integration focus, not patents.
DCF scenarios
▾
Discount rate: 13% — recently public (limited cycle history), high-growth, fabless, elevated short interest, architecture transition risk. Terminal growth 4.5%. FCF base FY2026E ~$500M (extrapolated from FY2025 $281.8M FCF × implied revenue growth). ⚠ est. — verify FCF vs Q1 2026 10-Q cash flow statement.
5Y FCF CAGR
40%
FY2031 FCF
~$2.7B
Terminal FCF multiple
30×
Fair value / share
~$230
Bull requires: Scorpio-X ramp sustains anchor-socket status across ≥3 hyperscaler platforms by 2027; GAAP gross margins hold ≥74%; Amazon warrant commitment converts to revenue in-line with vesting schedule; no architecture disruption through 2028. FCF path: $0.5B → $0.70B → $0.98B → $1.37B → $1.92B → $2.69B. Terminal EV ~$80.7B at 30×; PV at 13% over 5 years ≈ $43.8B; plus interim FCF PV ~$3.9B; total ~$47.7B ÷ ~207M diluted shares ≈ ~$230/share.
5Y FCF CAGR
20%
FY2031 FCF
~$1.24B
Terminal FCF multiple
20×
Fair value / share
~$78
Bear: Scorpio-X ramp stalls post-Blackwell as NVDA integrates switching in-package; ALAB loses 30%+ of switching TAM by 2027; FCF growth decelerates to 20% CAGR as competitive pricing compresses margins toward 68–70%. FCF path: $0.5B → $0.60B → $0.72B → $0.86B → $1.04B → $1.24B. Terminal EV ~$24.8B at 20×; PV at 13% ≈ $13.5B; plus interim ~$2.5B; total ~$16B ÷ ~207M shares ≈ ~$78/share.
Position: At $207, current price is near the bull case fair value (~$230) — you need the bull scenario to deliver to justify entry now. At $175–$200, bull upside rises to 15–32% with similar bear downside. The $230 bull vs $78 bear spread is very wide — size conservatively and do not initiate above the entry zone.
Catalyst timeline
▾
-
4 Aug 2026Q2 2026 earnings: The critical confirmation event. Guidance midpoint ~$360M — a beat to $375M+ would confirm PCIe Gen 6 switching and Scorpio-X initial ramp are accelerating, not plateauing. Watch GAAP gross margin: hold ≥75% signals pricing power intact. Any Q3 guide below $360M triggers the short-interest pile-on risk at current multiples.
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H2 2026Scorpio-X volume production & non-NVDA design wins: Management guided "high-volume production in the second half" with 10+ customers engaged. Any confirmation of a design win on AMD MI-series, Google TPU, AWS Trainium, or other custom silicon platforms would structurally de-risk the architecture-generation thesis-breaker and justify a meaningful multiple re-rate. Single most important diversification signal to watch.
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H2 2026Amazon warrant vesting disclosures: The $6.5B purchase commitment vests in tranches tied to Amazon's purchase volumes. Each disclosed vesting tranche confirms the structural demand anchor and progressively de-risks the customer-concentration risk. Watch for any Amazon AI infrastructure capex commentary in AWS earnings that cross-references ALAB product intake.
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2027Scorpio-X volume ramp year & Blackwell successor qualification: Management guided "volume ramp set for 2027." Simultaneously, NVDA's Rubin/GB300 architecture enters design-win qualification — ALAB's design-win status in the successor platform is the most important long-term thesis confirmation. Any earnings commentary on next-gen PCIe qualification starting in H2 2026 is a leading indicator.
Named analyst commentary
▾
Beth Kindig / IO Fund
"There were clues in the call as to when Astera is most likely to see a second wind with Scorpio-X as the catalyst. Overall, Astera has a longer runway than the market is communicating given there is an element of vendor lock-in to their products. Additionally, Ethernet is optimized for reach, whereas Astera specializes in PCIe, which is optimized for something quite different — GPU-to-GPU communication and memory-level workloads inside the rack." — IO Fund Q2 2026 Top 15 Stocks, ~Q2 20263
⚠ Dylan Patel / SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_): No direct ALAB-specific quote available from open-access sources as of May 2026. SemiAnalysis covers PCIe/CXL standards at the technical level; specific ALAB company commentary not published on the free tier as of this update.
⚠ Serenity (@aleabitoreddit): No coverage found from open-access sources (Reddit, X, aibottlenecks.app) on ALAB specifically as of May 2026.
Sources
1 Yahoo Finance / MarketBeat — ALAB price $207.35, 52W range $81.14–$262.90, avg analyst PT $229.65–$242.51 as of 12 May 2026
2 Astera Labs Q1 2026 earnings release (~5 May 2026): revenue $308.4M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ); GAAP GM 76.3%; GAAP OM 20.1%; non-GAAP OM 36.2%; non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.61; Q2 2026 guidance $355–365M revenue, $0.68–0.70 non-GAAP EPS. FY2025 OCF $319.3M (37.5% margin); FCF $281.8M (33.1% margin); cash $1.19B, zero debt — via stocktitan.net / Motley Fool transcript
3 IO Fund (Beth Kindig) — "Astera Labs: Bouncing off the Lows," The IO Fund's Top 15 Stocks for Q2 2026, io-fund.com (paywalled, captured 13 May 2026). Source for: Q4 2025 actual revenue $270.6M; Amazon warrant ($6.5B purchase commitment, $142.82/share, vesting by purchase tranches, expiry Feb 2033); Scorpio-X 10+ customer engagements; Scorpio-P at 15% of Q4 2025 revenue; Scorpio-P + X targeting >50% of revenue by end 2026
4 GuruFocus — ALAB Forward PE Ratio 69.76× as of 10 May 2026; semiconductor industry median Forward PE 36.79×
5 TradingKey — "Astera Labs Inc (ALAB) Moved Up by 8.76% on May 5," tradingkey.com (5 May 2026)
6 SEC EDGAR Form 4 — insider sales cluster 7 May 2026 (10b5-1 plans established Dec 2025); total ~$87M across CEO, COO, director. ⚠ est. — verify all dollar amounts against filed Form 4s at sec.gov before use
7 IO Fund (Beth Kindig / Royston Roche) — "Astera Labs: Important QoQ Acceleration, Product Road Map is Loaded", 13 May 2026 (premium)
Short interest 11.11% — Fintel.io / Nasdaq.com, most recent settlement period May 2026. Market cap ~$35.84B estimated; diluted share count ~173M estimated — verify against Q1 2026 10-Q. FCF base ($500M FY2026E) is a model estimate; verify against actual cash flow statement. Next earnings date 4 Aug 2026 is estimated — confirm at ir.asteralabs.com. All non-GAAP figures are management-adjusted; review GAAP P&L for SBC impact before execution.
1 Yahoo Finance / MarketBeat — ALAB price $207.35, 52W range $81.14–$262.90, avg analyst PT $229.65–$242.51 as of 12 May 2026
2 Astera Labs Q1 2026 earnings release (~5 May 2026): revenue $308.4M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ); GAAP GM 76.3%; GAAP OM 20.1%; non-GAAP OM 36.2%; non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.61; Q2 2026 guidance $355–365M revenue, $0.68–0.70 non-GAAP EPS. FY2025 OCF $319.3M (37.5% margin); FCF $281.8M (33.1% margin); cash $1.19B, zero debt — via stocktitan.net / Motley Fool transcript
3 IO Fund (Beth Kindig) — "Astera Labs: Bouncing off the Lows," The IO Fund's Top 15 Stocks for Q2 2026, io-fund.com (paywalled, captured 13 May 2026). Source for: Q4 2025 actual revenue $270.6M; Amazon warrant ($6.5B purchase commitment, $142.82/share, vesting by purchase tranches, expiry Feb 2033); Scorpio-X 10+ customer engagements; Scorpio-P at 15% of Q4 2025 revenue; Scorpio-P + X targeting >50% of revenue by end 2026
4 GuruFocus — ALAB Forward PE Ratio 69.76× as of 10 May 2026; semiconductor industry median Forward PE 36.79×
5 TradingKey — "Astera Labs Inc (ALAB) Moved Up by 8.76% on May 5," tradingkey.com (5 May 2026)
6 SEC EDGAR Form 4 — insider sales cluster 7 May 2026 (10b5-1 plans established Dec 2025); total ~$87M across CEO, COO, director. ⚠ est. — verify all dollar amounts against filed Form 4s at sec.gov before use
7 IO Fund (Beth Kindig / Royston Roche) — "Astera Labs: Important QoQ Acceleration, Product Road Map is Loaded", 13 May 2026 (premium)
Short interest 11.11% — Fintel.io / Nasdaq.com, most recent settlement period May 2026. Market cap ~$35.84B estimated; diluted share count ~173M estimated — verify against Q1 2026 10-Q. FCF base ($500M FY2026E) is a model estimate; verify against actual cash flow statement. Next earnings date 4 Aug 2026 is estimated — confirm at ir.asteralabs.com. All non-GAAP figures are management-adjusted; review GAAP P&L for SBC impact before execution.