GEV
GE Vernova LLC
⚡ AI Power Infrastructure — Gas Turbines & Grid
$1,083.17
Mkt Cap ~$293B
52W: $408.82 – $1,181.95 1
Next earnings: ~22 Jul 2026 (Q2 2026)
⏸ Add (pullback)
Entry zone: $980–$1,050
The market prices GEV as an industrial cyclical with a lucky AI tailwind; it has become the primary AI-native power infrastructure company — Q1 2026 electrification orders for data centres in a single quarter ($2.4B) exceeded all of 2025, and the $163B backlog (accelerating toward $200B by 2027) is now priced 10–20% higher per kilowatt than the Q4 2025 cohort, with that margin uplift contractually scheduled to flow through 2027–28 earnings regardless of new order momentum.
Q1 Revenue
$9.3B
+16% YoY
Q1 Orders
$18.3B
+71% YoY · B/B 2.0×
Backlog
$163B
Target: $200B by 2027
FY26 FCF Guide
$6.5–7.5B
Q1 alone: $4.8B 3
FY26 EBITDA Margin
12–14%
+390 bps in Q1 YoY
Gas Turbine GW
100 GW
Target: 110 GW by YE 2026
DC Electrification Q1
$2.4B
>All of 2025 in one quarter
Analyst Coverage
28 Buy
0 Sell · Avg PT $1,207
Thesis Durability
A
Variant perception: The market treats GEV as a rate-sensitive industrial utility play; it is actually a contracted AI infrastructure company — hyperscalers have structurally chosen gas turbines as the only solution that can deliver multi-gigawatt power in 18–24 months while grid interconnection queues run 3–7 years. The $2.4B Q1 electrification data centre order intake (more than all of 2025) validates this is a structural demand shift, not a one-quarter pull-forward.
TAM and demand quality: AI data centre power demand projected to grow 550% to 52 TWh by 2026 and +1,150% to 652 TWh by 2030 (Wells Fargo).2 Hyperscalers now represent >1/3 of GEV's new Power segment orders; the Electrification segment's data centre order pace in Q1 exceeded annual 2025 totals. This is infrastructure procurement, not budgetary discretion.
Contracted pricing uplift: Orders signed in H1 2026 are priced 10–20% higher per kilowatt than the Q4 2025 backlog — that uplift is contractually embedded and flows into 2027–28 gross margin as orders convert to revenue, making the forward earnings trajectory increasingly visible regardless of new-order velocity.3
Bear case: FERC Order 1920 grid transmission reforms accelerate faster than expected by 2028, narrowing the gas turbine speed-to-power advantage; tariff-driven offshore wind losses exceed $1B annually. Neither breaks the existing $163B backlog which is already contracted.
TAM and demand quality: AI data centre power demand projected to grow 550% to 52 TWh by 2026 and +1,150% to 652 TWh by 2030 (Wells Fargo).2 Hyperscalers now represent >1/3 of GEV's new Power segment orders; the Electrification segment's data centre order pace in Q1 exceeded annual 2025 totals. This is infrastructure procurement, not budgetary discretion.
Contracted pricing uplift: Orders signed in H1 2026 are priced 10–20% higher per kilowatt than the Q4 2025 backlog — that uplift is contractually embedded and flows into 2027–28 gross margin as orders convert to revenue, making the forward earnings trajectory increasingly visible regardless of new-order velocity.3
Bear case: FERC Order 1920 grid transmission reforms accelerate faster than expected by 2028, narrowing the gas turbine speed-to-power advantage; tariff-driven offshore wind losses exceed $1B annually. Neither breaks the existing $163B backlog which is already contracted.
Contracted, not narrative. The backlog pricing uplift is embedded in future revenue regardless of new orders. AI data centre demand has moved from narrative to primary order driver in a single quarter.
Business Quality
A−
FCF inflection — the clearest signal: Q1 2026 FCF of $4.8B exceeded full-year 2025 total FCF in a single quarter. FY26 FCF guidance raised to $6.5–7.5B (up from $5.0–5.5B prior), a 30–50% raise that reflects the genuine quality step-change in the business, not a timing artefact.3
EBITDA momentum: Adj. EBITDA nearly doubled YoY in Q1; margins expanded +390 bps. FY26 adj. EBITDA margin guided 12–14% on $44.5–45.5B revenue implies ~$5.3–6.4B EBITDA for the year. New backlog pricing means 2027–28 margins should expand materially from this base even without further new orders.
Capital returns: $10B buyback + doubled dividend. The buyback is ~3.5% of market cap — modest but credible given the FCF trajectory.
Wind drag (known, managed): Offshore wind losses persist; estimated FY26 tariff costs $250–350M. This is the primary quality risk — real but bounded. Power and Electrification segments are growing cleanly through it.
Form 4 (last 90 days): ⚠ No significant insider cluster flagged from available open-access sources as of May 2026. Verify via SEC EDGAR before execution.
EBITDA momentum: Adj. EBITDA nearly doubled YoY in Q1; margins expanded +390 bps. FY26 adj. EBITDA margin guided 12–14% on $44.5–45.5B revenue implies ~$5.3–6.4B EBITDA for the year. New backlog pricing means 2027–28 margins should expand materially from this base even without further new orders.
Capital returns: $10B buyback + doubled dividend. The buyback is ~3.5% of market cap — modest but credible given the FCF trajectory.
Wind drag (known, managed): Offshore wind losses persist; estimated FY26 tariff costs $250–350M. This is the primary quality risk — real but bounded. Power and Electrification segments are growing cleanly through it.
Form 4 (last 90 days): ⚠ No significant insider cluster flagged from available open-access sources as of May 2026. Verify via SEC EDGAR before execution.
Genuine inflection — FCF exceeding full-year 2025 in one quarter is hard to dismiss. Wind losses are a managed, bounded drag on a structurally improving business.
Entry Price Discipline
C+
FCF yield: At $1,083 with FY26 FCF guide midpoint $7B, FCF yield ≈ 2.4% — low for an industrial, high for a contracted AI infrastructure company. You are paying for significant FCF growth beyond FY26.
EV/EBITDA: At ~$293B market cap and FY26 EBITDA midpoint ~$5.85B, EV/EBITDA ≈ 50×. Industrial peers trade at 20–30×; premium AI-infrastructure industrials (Vertiv, Eaton) at 35–55×. GEV is at the expensive end of the peer premium range.4
Distance from entry zone: Current $1,083 is 3–10% above the $980–1,050 entry zone. Stock +14% post-Q1 earnings (22 Apr) — the Q1 catalyst has already fired. The 52W high of $1,182 is 9.1% above current; we are currently 8.4% below ATH after the earnings pop.
Analyst consensus: Avg PT $1,207 (28 Buy, 0 Sell) = 11.4% upside. This is a mild momentum tailwind, not a deep-value opportunity. New orders priced 10–20% higher create a forward earnings tailwind not yet fully in consensus estimates — the real upside is in 2027–28, not 2026.
DCF: At 10% discount rate and 25% 5-year FCF CAGR (the bull case), fair value is ~$1,200 — only 10.8% above current. The bull case barely justifies current entry.
EV/EBITDA: At ~$293B market cap and FY26 EBITDA midpoint ~$5.85B, EV/EBITDA ≈ 50×. Industrial peers trade at 20–30×; premium AI-infrastructure industrials (Vertiv, Eaton) at 35–55×. GEV is at the expensive end of the peer premium range.4
Distance from entry zone: Current $1,083 is 3–10% above the $980–1,050 entry zone. Stock +14% post-Q1 earnings (22 Apr) — the Q1 catalyst has already fired. The 52W high of $1,182 is 9.1% above current; we are currently 8.4% below ATH after the earnings pop.
Analyst consensus: Avg PT $1,207 (28 Buy, 0 Sell) = 11.4% upside. This is a mild momentum tailwind, not a deep-value opportunity. New orders priced 10–20% higher create a forward earnings tailwind not yet fully in consensus estimates — the real upside is in 2027–28, not 2026.
DCF: At 10% discount rate and 25% 5-year FCF CAGR (the bull case), fair value is ~$1,200 — only 10.8% above current. The bull case barely justifies current entry.
Fairly valued in the bull scenario. Entry at $980–1,050 provides 13–22% upside to bull DCF. Current $1,083 leaves no margin of safety against wind losses or AI capex deceleration.
Verdict — Add (pullback) · Entry zone $980–$1,050
GEV has earned its premium — Q1 FCF exceeding full-year 2025 in a single quarter, data centre electrification orders in Q1 alone surpassing all of 2025, and a backlog trajectory toward $200B by 2027 with 10–20% pricing uplift built in are contracted facts, not estimates. The thesis has structurally upgraded from "AI power narrative" to "contracted AI power infrastructure." The problem is not the thesis — it is timing: the stock reacted +14% post-earnings on 22 Apr and currently sits at $1,083, 3–10% above the $980–1,050 entry zone and within 9% of the ATH. Adding at $1,083 leaves limited margin of safety to the ~$1,200 bull DCF fair value. The right position is a small starter (2–3% NLV) to establish cost basis, with a commitment to add aggressively toward 5–7% on any pullback to the entry zone — which any macro compression, wind segment headline, or AI capex moderation narrative will likely provide.
New position: start at 2–3% NLV now. Add to 5–7% NLV on pullback to $980–$1,050. Maximum 10% NLV (single-stock cap 20%). Do not chase above $1,100 ahead of Q2 earnings (~22 Jul). Q2 confirmation of ≥$2.0B data centre electrification orders and FCF guide held is the signal to fill the full allocation.
Opportunity-cost check
▾
vs CSPX
CSPX owns GEV at S&P 500 index weight (~0.3%) — not at concentrated exposure. GEV's specific edge is the AI power infrastructure factor: the only name in the watchlist with a $163B contracted backlog that directly monetises hyperscaler power demand without an AI software or chip multiple. CSPX cannot replicate this factor exposure at meaningful weight. Edge over CSPX is clear if FCF grows at ≥15% CAGR through 2030 — well within the contracted trajectory.
vs current holdings
GEV adds "AI Power Infrastructure" factor exposure absent from every current holding (MU: memory, PLTR: software, META/GOOGL: software/ad, NOW: enterprise SaaS). No factor overlap; no existing position needs to be displaced. Most analogous to CSPX in cash-flow quality, but with concentrated AI-power beta that CSPX cannot replicate at portfolio-meaningful weight. At 5–7% sizing, it meaningfully diversifies AI exposure without duplicating any factor in the book.
Thesis-breakers
▾
- 01 Q2 2026 data centre electrification orders below $1.5B (vs Q1 $2.4B) by ~22 Jul 2026: any single-quarter deceleration below $1.5B signals hyperscaler power procurement is normalising or shifting to alternatives — the primary new growth driver of the thesis breaks and the $200B backlog target becomes dependent on Power segment orders alone.
- 02 Gas turbine slot reservations stall below 105 GW at Q3 earnings (~Oct 2026): management targets 110 GW by YE 2026 (current: 100 GW); failure to grow from 100 GW signals the backlog absorption ceiling has been reached ahead of schedule — kills the $200B-by-2027 trajectory and the pricing-uplift 2028 earnings thesis.
- 03 FY26 FCF guidance revised below $5.5B at any quarterly update: the pre-Q1 guide was $5.0–5.5B; any downward revision back to this range implies the Q1 FCF beat was seasonal/timing, not structural — the fundamental quality argument for holding at premium valuation collapses.
Key risks
▾
- 01 Offshore wind losses exceed guidance: FY26 tariff impact estimated $250–350M; offshore project execution has consistently disappointed across the industry. If total wind EBITDA drag exceeds $1.5B in FY26, the blended margin misses the 12% floor and the FY27 earnings recovery thesis is delayed 1–2 years. This is the single largest known financial drag on an otherwise clean business.
- 02 Premium multiple at near-ATH entry: At ~50× EV/EBITDA and 2.4% FCF yield, the stock prices in significant multi-year EBITDA expansion. Any guidance reduction, order deceleration, or macro risk-off move compresses the multiple faster than earnings can grow into it. The 52W high of $1,182 is only 9% above current, providing limited technical buffer against narrative compression.
- 03 AI capex digestion risk: Hyperscaler AI capex is expected to remain elevated through 2026–27, but any major hyperscaler call citing capex moderation creates a multiple de-rate on GEV regardless of the contracted backlog. The existing backlog buffers 2027–28 revenue, but new order momentum (the forward-looking signal) would stall — and the market prices forward momentum, not backlog.
- 04 Grid speed-advantage erosion: GEV's key moat is deployment speed (18–24 months vs. grid interconnection queues of 3–7 years). FERC Order 1920 transmission reform and aggressive state-level interconnection programmes could materially narrow this gap by 2028–29, reducing the urgency premium hyperscalers are currently paying for gas turbine solutions over renewables.
- 05 Natural gas price and policy exposure: Gas turbine economics are tied to NG availability and pricing. A sustained NG price spike (>30%) or export-policy shift constraining domestic supply would either raise data centre operating costs (reducing hyperscaler demand) or compress margin on long-term power purchase agreements. Partially mitigated by contract structures but not eliminated.
DCF scenarios
▾
Discount rate: 10.0% — profitable industrial with investment-grade cash flows, $163B contracted backlog, proven FCF generation (Q1 FCF $4.8B exceeded full-year 2025). Terminal growth 4.5%. FCF base FY26: $7.0B (guidance midpoint). Diluted shares: ~270M ⚠ estimated — verify vs 10-Q.3
5Y FCF CAGR
25%
FY2031 FCF
~$21.4B
Terminal FCF multiple
20×
Fair value / share
~$1,200
Bull requires: $200B backlog reached by 2027 as guided; 10–20% pricing uplift per kW flows through 2027–28 gross margin; data centre electrification orders ≥$2B/quarter in 2026; EBITDA margin expands to 18–20% by FY30. FCF path: $7.0B → $8.75B → $10.9B → $13.7B → $17.1B → $21.4B. Terminal EV ~$428B; PV at 10% over 5 years ≈ $266B; plus interim FCF PV ~$39B; total EV ~$305B ÷ ~270M shares ≈ ~$1,130. At 20× terminal (vs 15× base): ~$1,200/share.
5Y FCF CAGR
8%
FY2031 FCF
~$10.3B
Terminal FCF multiple
15×
Fair value / share
~$550
Bear: AI capex slows in 2027 as hyperscalers digest built capacity; grid reform narrows GEV's speed advantage; offshore wind losses persist above $1B annually through FY28; FCF growth decelerates to 8% CAGR. FCF path: $7.0B → $7.56B → $8.16B → $8.81B → $9.52B → $10.3B. Terminal EV ~$154.5B; PV at 10% = ~$95.9B; plus interim ~$26.7B; total ~$122.6B ÷ 270M shares ≈ ~$450. At 15× terminal: ~$550/share.
Position: Current price $1,083 sits near the bull fair value (~$1,200) — the stock has largely priced in the Q1 upgrade. Bull upside is 10.8% from here. Bear downside is 49%. Entry at $980–$1,050 improves bull upside to 14–22% and is the risk-adjusted entry point. The DCF frames this as "fairly valued in the bull case" — not a value opportunity, an execution bet.
Catalyst timeline
▾
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2026-07Q2 2026 earnings (~22 Jul): The most important near-term test. Watch: data centre electrification orders ≥$2.0B (Q1: $2.4B); gas turbine backlog trajectory toward 105+ GW; FCF guide held or raised. A Q2 beat confirms structural AI power demand. A miss on orders — particularly data centre — triggers a 10–15% correction toward the $980–1,050 entry zone and is the better entry than current price.
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2026-OctQ3 2026 earnings — 110 GW milestone check: Management targets gas turbine slot reservations at 110 GW by YE 2026 (current: 100 GW). Confirmation at Q3 would validate the $200B-by-2027 backlog trajectory. Additionally, watch for any wind segment improvement toward breakeven — an early delivery would be a significant margin re-rate catalyst.
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2026 H2Offshore wind losses narrowing: Management has committed to improving wind economics through 2026. If Q3 or Q4 shows wind EBITDA approaching breakeven, blended group margin re-rates toward 15%+. This is a significant valuation catalyst since the current 12–14% FY26 guide embeds material wind losses — removing that drag in FY27 is worth a meaningful EPS uplift.
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2027 H1$200B backlog milestone: GEV pulled forward the $200B backlog target from 2028 to 2027 at Q1 earnings. Achieving $200B would be a 23% backlog increase from current $163B, confirming that pricing uplift and structural AI power demand have been sustained through 2026. This is the single largest long-term thesis confirmation event for the 2028 earnings thesis.
Named analyst commentary
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Beth Kindig — IO Fund Q2 2026 Top 15 Stocks
"GE Vernova exited 2025 with one of the strongest AI demand and backlog profiles in the energy industry." IO Fund included GEV in their Q2 2026 top 15 stock list, citing accelerating slot reservations, rising pricing, improving backlog margins and multi-year visibility extending into the end of the decade. On the backlog build: management now expects to reach 100GW under contract in 2026, an upward revision from the 60GW discussed in mid-2025 — and "by the time that 100GW is reached, both 2029 and 2030 capacity will be sold out." IO Fund flagged the wind segment weakness as the primary risk to watch, with management expecting a meaningful recovery to materialise in H2 2026.
No coverage from: Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) and Dylan Patel / SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) — both focus on semiconductor and chip infrastructure; GEV as an industrial power equipment company is outside their published coverage universe.
Sources
1 Yahoo Finance / StockAnalysis.com — GEV 52W range $408.82–$1,181.95; price $1,083.17 as of 11 May 2026
2 Wells Fargo AI power demand projection — cited via TIKR blog "GE Vernova Stock Surged 14% After Q1 2026 Earnings" (22–23 Apr 2026); GE Vernova IR Q1 2026 earnings transcript (22 Apr 2026)
3 GE Vernova Q1 2026 earnings press release and investor presentation — gevernova.com/news/press-releases (22 Apr 2026): Q1 revenue $9.3B (+16% YoY); orders $18.3B (+71% YoY, B/B ~2×); backlog $163B; Q1 FCF $4.8B; FY26 guidance raised: rev $44.5–45.5B, EBITDA margin 12–14%, FCF $6.5–7.5B; gas turbine backlog 100 GW (target 110 GW by YE); data centre electrification Q1 orders $2.4B; new orders 10–20% higher $/kW vs Q4 2025 backlog; $200B backlog target pulled forward to 2027
4 EV/EBITDA peer comparison — Vertiv Holdings and Eaton Corp. forward EV/EBITDA via StockAnalysis.com; GEV figure estimated from guidance midpoint ⚠ verify against broker consensus
⚠ = figure estimated or not verifiable from a second open-access source. Form 4 insider activity not verified from SEC EDGAR at time of writing — check prior to execution. Diluted shares (~270M) estimated from market cap ÷ price; verify against Q1 2026 10-Q. Analyst consensus PT $1,206.56 sourced from MarketBeat / public.com as of 11–12 May 2026.
1 Yahoo Finance / StockAnalysis.com — GEV 52W range $408.82–$1,181.95; price $1,083.17 as of 11 May 2026
2 Wells Fargo AI power demand projection — cited via TIKR blog "GE Vernova Stock Surged 14% After Q1 2026 Earnings" (22–23 Apr 2026); GE Vernova IR Q1 2026 earnings transcript (22 Apr 2026)
3 GE Vernova Q1 2026 earnings press release and investor presentation — gevernova.com/news/press-releases (22 Apr 2026): Q1 revenue $9.3B (+16% YoY); orders $18.3B (+71% YoY, B/B ~2×); backlog $163B; Q1 FCF $4.8B; FY26 guidance raised: rev $44.5–45.5B, EBITDA margin 12–14%, FCF $6.5–7.5B; gas turbine backlog 100 GW (target 110 GW by YE); data centre electrification Q1 orders $2.4B; new orders 10–20% higher $/kW vs Q4 2025 backlog; $200B backlog target pulled forward to 2027
4 EV/EBITDA peer comparison — Vertiv Holdings and Eaton Corp. forward EV/EBITDA via StockAnalysis.com; GEV figure estimated from guidance midpoint ⚠ verify against broker consensus
⚠ = figure estimated or not verifiable from a second open-access source. Form 4 insider activity not verified from SEC EDGAR at time of writing — check prior to execution. Diluted shares (~270M) estimated from market cap ÷ price; verify against Q1 2026 10-Q. Analyst consensus PT $1,206.56 sourced from MarketBeat / public.com as of 11–12 May 2026.