GEV
GE Vernova LLC
AI Power Infrastructure — Gas Turbines & Grid
$1,045.63
May 2026 · IO entry $686.18 (Nov 2025, +52.4%) · Backlog $163B
Q1 2026: $9.34B revenue · Orders +59% YoY · 28 Buy, 0 Sell
◆ ADD ON PULLBACK
Entry zone: $900–970
AI data centre power demand is GEV's structural multi-decade tailwind — hyperscalers are >1/3 of new orders. Gas turbine backlog extends 10+ years. Orders +59% in Q1 (revenue lags by design). FY26 EPS headwind from offshore wind losses is a near-term friction, not a structural problem. FY27 EPS guide +55%. CEO: "We are at 10% of our directional market."
Fwd P/E (FY26)
~55×
FY26 EPS -21% (wind)
Q1 Revenue
$9.34B
Order Growth Q1
+59%
Leading revenue indicator
Backlog
$163B
10+ year visibility
FY27 EPS Growth
+55%
After FY26 dip
Buyback
$10B
+ Doubled dividend
Analyst Coverage
28 Buy
0 Sell
DCF Fair Value
$845
Narrative FV: $1,175
Valuation vs Growth
C+
Fwd P/E ~55× on FY26 numbers is optically high — but FY26 EPS is depressed -21% YoY by offshore wind losses that are structural near-term, not permanent. FY27 EPS guide +55% makes the forward story compelling. DCF fair value $845 vs narrative fair value $1,175 — the stock at $1,045 sits between the two. 28 Buy / 0 Sell from sell-side.
FY26 EPS dip is the friction; FY27 leverage is the thesis. $1,045 is near DCF fair value.
Fundamentals vs Hype
A-
Gas turbine backlog 10 years+. Hyperscalers >1/3 of new orders — AI data centre power demand is the structural driver. GridOS for Distribution launched (recurring software revenue layer). $10B buyback + doubled dividend. FY26 EPS headwind from offshore wind losses is real near-term drag — not hype, but a known manageable headwind. CEO: "at 10% of our directional market."
Grounded long-term. FY26 wind losses are the known near-term friction.
Institutional vs Retail
A
28 Buy, 0 Sell — broadest analyst conviction of any energy name in the IO Fund portfolio. IO Fund entered at $686.18 (Nov 2025, +52.4% gain). High institutional interest in energy transition names as AI power demand becomes a consensus thematic. Clean, institutionally-driven holder base.
Institutionally held. No retail froth; professional consensus is strong.
Verdict
Add on pullback. GEV is the highest-quality AI power infrastructure name — better earnings visibility than Bloom Energy (BE) and a cleaner AI power story than NextEra (NEE). IO Fund entered at $686; at $1,045 the stock is +52% from that entry and is now trading near DCF fair value ($845). The narrative fair value of $1,175 requires perfect execution on the FY27 earnings recovery and continued hyperscaler order momentum. At $900-970 the margin of safety returns. The $163B backlog makes this a genuinely durable compounder — but price discipline matters at these levels.
Entry zone: $900–970 on pullback (current $1,046 is near DCF fair value)
⚠ Key Risks
- 01Offshore wind losses persist into FY26 — management has guided for improvement but wind project execution has disappointed repeatedly across the industry
- 02DCF fair value $845 vs current $1,045 — at current price, upside requires the narrative scenario ($1,175), not just DCF execution; limited margin of safety
- 03AI capex digestion — if hyperscaler capex slows in H2 2026, new order momentum reverses; orders +59% Q1 is the leading indicator to watch
- 04Grid interconnection delays — AI data centres want power now; GEV's gas turbine delivery cycle is 2-3 years, creating a structural mismatch with urgency
- 05Natural gas price sensitivity — gas turbine profitability and hyperscaler fuel cell economics both exposed to commodity gas pricing