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Last updated 2026-06-09
Ticker Layer Price Mkt Cap Fwd P/E Rev Growth PEG Thesis Quality R/R Verdict Entry Zone
NVDA AI Compute ~$210 ~$5.1T 19× fwd +85% 0.41 A B+ B+ Add (pullback) $210–235 (at zone bottom · Q1 ✓)
TSM AI Foundry ~$410 $2.1T 25.8× +41% 0.53 A A B− Add (pullback) $340–375 (above · stage)
AVGO AI Custom Silicon ~$401 $1.93T ~32× +48% (+143% AI) ~0.53 A A A− Strong Add $370–400 (in)
CRM AI Enterprise SW ~$179 $146B 13.6× +12% 0.86 B+ A− A Strong Add $160–205 (in)
NOW AI Workflow $91.18 $93.9B ~22× +19% CC 0.83 A A A− Hold · Stage <$90 $80–95 (in)
DDOG AI Observability ~$199 ~$63B 78–86× +32% 3.35 A− A− B− Add (pullback) $175–190 (above)
GOOGL AI Software ~$365 ~$4.43T 23× +30% 0.9 A− A C+ Hold $320–340 (15–20% off)
COHR AI Optics ~$405 ~$81B ~45× +20.5% 1.2 A B+ C+ Add (pullback) $290–330 (above)
NEE AI Power ~$84 ~$175B 23.9× +10% EPS 3.1 A− B+ C+ Add (pullback) $82–88 (in zone)
PLTR AI Software $134.77 $324B 88× +85% 1.78 B A D Watch $100–115 (above · monitor)
MU HBM Memory ~$985 ~$1.1T ~10× ⚠ +196% ⚠ <0.2 ⚠ A A C+ Hold · No Add $600–650 (50%+ above · trim zone)
SIMO NAND Controller ~$265 ~$9.1B 30.3× ⚠ +105% ⚠ 0.49 ⚠ B+ B C+ Watch $185–$215 (26-31% below)
AMD AI Accelerator ~$436 ~$706B 53× +38% 1.02 B+ A− C+ Add (pullback) $380–420 (above)
ALAB AI Connectivity ~$223 ~$45B ⚠ 80–82× +93% 2.34 B+ A− C+ Watch $175–200 (above)
SNDK NAND Memory ~$1,413 ~$209B 9–12× +251% ⚠ Low ⚠ A− A C+ Add (pullback) $1,200–1,350 (pullback)
AAOI AI Optics & 800G ~$203 ~$16.2B N/A (loss) +51% N/A B+ B C Watch $120–140 (post-Q2)
LITE AI Optics / EML ~$993 ~$71–77B 80–95×⚠ +90.1% N/M A A− D Watch $780–870 (above)
META AI Social & Ads ~$596 $1.55T ~20× +33% 0.89 A A A− Strong Add $580–630 (in)
NBIS AI Neocloud / GPU Infra ~$233 ~$58B ~13–15× P/S +547% N/M B+ B C Watch Entry suspended (CapEx)
MXL AI Foundry & Connectivity / Optical DSP ~$79 ~$7.1B ~53× Fwd P/E +43% 2.0% B+ C+ C+ Watch $45–58 (above zone)
GEV AI Power ~$1,062 ~$287B ~55× +16% Q1 High A A− C+ Add (pullback) $980–1,050 (above)
BE AI Power ~$301 ~$86.6B ~135× +130% 3.37 B+ B D Watch $180–220 (above)
DRAM DRAM/HBM/NAND ETF ~$63 ETF N/A (ETF) Memory cycle N/A A B+ B Hold · No Add Combined memory ceiling <12% NLV
SITM MEMS Precision Timing ~$675 ~$17.5B ~100× nGAAP +88% Q1 ✓ 2.98 ⚠ A− A− C+ Hold · Accum weakness $480–560 (above · 5 Aug Q2 gate)
Dim grades reflect three-dimension framework (Thesis Durability · Business Quality · Risk/Reward at Current Price). Verdict pill follows SKILL.md verdict table. "(in)" = current price inside entry zone · "(above)" = price above zone.
📅 Key Catalysts — Jun to Aug 2026
Date Ticker Event What to watch
13 May ✓ NBIS Q1 2026 earnings — reported Beat: ARR trajectory on track, Meta/MSFT contracts confirmed. CapEx run-rate ($16–20B) confirmed — validates suspension of entry. Stock +26% post-print to ~$233. Entry remains suspended pending CapEx execution clarity.
20 May ✓ NVDA Q1 FY27 earnings — reported Reported. Entry zone updated to $210–235 post-print. Stock pulled back to ~$210 — now at zone bottom. Update ticker page for full results.
27 May ✓ CRM Q1 FY27 earnings — reported Reported. Watch Agentforce ARR trajectory and organic growth ex-Informatica confirmation. Update ticker page for full results.
Late May ✓ NOW Q1 print — reported Reported. Pro Plus ACV attach and Federal renewal pacing are thesis-confirmation metrics. Update ticker page for full results.
3 Jun ✓ AVGO Q2 FY26 earnings — reported Beat-and-raise: $22.19B rev, AI semis $10.8B (+143%), 46% FCF margin, Q3 guided $29.4B, AI bookings >$30B. Stock -15% post-print on FY27 $100B XPU target reiteration (not raise) — created $370–400 entry zone.
17–18 Jun FOMC June meeting + dot plot Rate path. High-multiple software (PLTR 88×, DDOG 82×, ALAB 81×) is the rate-sensitive cohort.
24 Jun MU Q3 FY26 earnings HBM ASP trajectory, FY27 capex, NAND commentary. Cyclical-margin reversion — peak signal.
~16 Jul TSM Q2 2026 earnings + monthly revenue N3/N2 mix, AI accelerator revenue share, CoWoS capacity. Leading indicator for the rest.
22 Jul NEE Q2 2026 earnings NEER origination cadence, IRA tax-credit policy update, hyperscaler PPA additions.
~22 Jul GEV Q2 2026 earnings Gas turbine bookings, $163B backlog conversion, FCF guide sustainability after Q1 $4.8B beat.
Late Jul META Q2 earnings Reels monetisation, 2027 capex envelope, Llama 4 enterprise commentary.
Late Jul GOOGL Q2 earnings Cloud margin, Search resilience vs AI Overviews cannibalisation, TPU/Anthropic commentary.
28–29 Jul FOMC July meeting Second cut signal vs sticky-inflation hold. Lands inside earnings window — compounding volatility.
Early Aug AMD Q2 earnings MI355X revenue contribution, MI450 ramp commentary, Meta 6GW + OAI 6GW updates.
Early Aug PLTR Q2 earnings US commercial deceleration check, ongoing insider activity, Anthropic JV impact on Foundry pipeline.
6 Aug AAOI Q2 2026 earnings 800G shipment cadence (target 110K+ units), Texas fab yield ramp, GM trajectory toward 35% YE26. Entry-zone gate.
🎯 Top 5 Opportunities — Actionable Now
  1. 1
    META Strong Add A / A / A− · PEG 0.89 · entry $580–630 · in zone
    Cleanest large-cap setup. 20× fwd P/E, +33% YoY rev, ad impressions +19% × price-per-ad +12% — both volume and price compound simultaneously. Capex-anxiety obscures that core monetisation is accelerating. Current ~$596, mid-zone ($580–630). No earnings until late Jul — lowest-event-risk Strong Add in the universe.
  2. 2
    CRM Strong Add B+ / A− / A · PEG 0.86 · entry $160–205 · in zone
    13.6× fwd P/E for an enterprise SaaS leader is a value setup masquerading as software. Agentforce $800M ARR (+169% YoY) is income-statement revenue, not pipeline. Q1 FY27 reported (27 May) — update ticker page for results. Dim 1 capped at B+ until organic growth re-acceleration (FY27 H2 guide) is confirmed. Asymmetric: Agentforce traction = rerating; disappointment = own a $146B FCF compounder at 11× EV/FCF.
  3. 3
    AVGO Strong Add A / A / A− · PEG ~0.53 · entry $370–400 · ~$397 · in zone
    Q2 FY26 (3 Jun) was a clean beat-and-raise — revenue $22.19B, AI semis $10.8B (+143%), record 46% FCF margin, software back to +9%, Q3 guided $29.4B above Street, networking at 40% of AI revenue, AI bookings >$30B vs $10.8B shipped. The stock fell ~15% to ~$397 purely because Hock Tan reiterated rather than raised the FY27 $100B chip target — handing the pullback the prior verdict was waiting for. Now in the $370–400 zone with Dim 2 upgraded to A and Dim 3 to A−. Add toward 6–8% here; reserve further adds for <$370.
  4. 4
    NOW Hold · Stage <$90 A / A / A− · PEG 0.83 · entry $80–95 · in zone
    A/A/A− on three dimensions — best-balanced grade card in the table. Q1 reported (late May) — update ticker page for results. Entry zone $80–95 remains; target below $90 for re-entry or add. Pro Plus ACV attach + Federal renewal pacing are the two metrics that confirm the FY27 thesis.
  5. 5
    TSM Add (pullback) A / A / B− · PEG 0.53 · entry $340–375 · ~9% above
    Foundry monopoly on leading-edge nodes — Apple, NVDA, AMD anchored, 59% HPC mix. +41% rev growth at PEG 0.53 is the cheapest scale-vs-multiple combination in the table. ~$410 sits ~9% above zone; per the SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A justifies staged starter now (3–5%) with discipline to add to target weight only on retest of $375 or post-Q2 (16 Jul) print dip.
⚠️ Caution — What to Avoid
MACRO & REGIME
  • !AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Cohort drawdowns of 15–20% historically follow record-print weeks. Stage entries over 6–8 weeks; never lump-sum at the top.
  • !Memory cycle may run longer than expected — but margins revert. SNDK Q3 FY26 management confirmed NAND market "more undersupplied in Q3 than Q2," with demand above supply through CY2026. SNDK upgraded to Add (pullback); MU remains Hold. Do not add both simultaneously — combined memory exposure would exceed prudent cycle-risk limits. Cyclical margin reversion is when-not-if: NAND GMs compressed from ~65% peak to 25–35% in the 2022–23 downcycle.
  • !Pre-earnings asymmetry is bad. NVDA (20 May), CRM (27 May), and AVGO (3 Jun) have printed. Remaining: MU (24 Jun), hyperscalers (late Jul), AAOI (6 Aug) carry 8–12% implied moves. Resist adding inside the 5-day pre-print window — better risk/reward post-print, off the gap.
  • !Concentration is a hidden risk. Closing the active-picks gap by adding two more software names creates correlated AI-capex exposure. Spread across foundry / optics / software / power.
  • !Insider clusters worth respecting. PLTR insiders sold $432.9M in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares (position exited). AAOI insider selling $29.6M / 90d. AVGO Hock Tan 200K shares sold/contributed since Dec. Treat as a hard signal, not noise.
  • !"In entry zone" ≠ "must buy now." The zone is permission, not obligation. If Dim 1 + Dim 2 + macro all line up, take it. If two of three are weak, wait for confirmation. Per SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A/A+ names above zone get a 3–5% starter — not a full skip.
  • !Single-stock cap 20%. Hard rule. MU is the closest current breach risk — let it run, but the next add goes elsewhere.
TACTICAL — PER-TICKER
  • Add more MU above $1,000. Currently ~$985, well above prior $600–650 entry zone — has blown through the $850–900 trim trigger. Consider trimming incrementally above $1,000 to bank gains and manage cyclical-reversion risk. HBM tailwind is real but margin reversion is when-not-if. 24 Jun Q3 print is the next definitive signal.
  • Re-enter PLTR without a margin of safety. Position exited; three risk vectors remain — 88× fwd P/E, $432.9M insider sales 90d (incl. Thiel 1.9M shares), and Anthropic's $1.5B enterprise-services JV as direct competition. Multiple-compression to ~$90 is a live scenario. Re-entry at $100–115 or below makes the math work; chasing above $130+ does not. 4 Aug Q2 print is the next re-evaluation gate.
  • Chase NVDA above $235 (top of entry zone). Q1 FY27 reported (20 May); entry zone updated to $210–235. Currently ~$210, near zone bottom — a better entry point than the pre-print $220 level. Add within $210–225; resist chasing above $235 ahead of Q2 FY27.
  • Treat NEE as an AI growth story. It's a utility with AI optionality at PEG 3.1. Add only for income and power hedge, not AI growth.
  • Add SNDK at market after the Q3 FY26 run-up. Q3 beat consensus by 29% ($5.95B actual vs $4.6B guide midpoint); Q4 guided $7.75–8.25B — well above prior Dec 2027 consensus of $4.19B. Verdict upgraded to Add (pullback). Wait for $1,200–1,350 zone before initiating. Stacking with MU creates correlated NAND/DRAM memory cyclicality — size ≤5% NLV on any entry.
  • Add AAOI before 6 Aug Q2 print. Currently ~$203, up +29% since last review — now 45% above the $120–140 entry zone. Insider selling $29.6M / 90d, Q1 slight miss ($151M vs $155M est), Texas fab ramp unvalidated. Q2 on 6 Aug is the gate; entry zone $120–140 only post-confirmation.
  • Deploy all capital at once. AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Stage over 6–8 weeks.
  • Add Bloom Energy (BE) at ~$301. Never GAAP-profitable, ~135× fwd P/E, PEG 3.37. AI fuel cell thesis aspirational not demonstrated. Entry zone $180–220 (~40% below current).
  • Add ARM at current price ($213+). PEG 4.87 — worst in the AI-chip basket. 11.46% short interest. NVDA at 26.5× / PEG 0.35 is a strictly better AI chip bet.
  • Chase AMD above $420. Currently ~$436, pulling back from $460 high — approaching zone but not yet there. Meta 6GW and OpenAI MI450 commitments are real but priced in. Wait for $380–420 zone before initiating.
💰 Suggested Cash Holding
18%
current · operating range 15–22% · floor 0% · ceiling 40%
▼ CURRENT 18%
0%10%20%30%40%
AGGRESSIVE
BALANCED
DEFENSIVE
CASH-HEAVY
REGIME INPUTS
  • ValuationIn-zone names: AVGO (~$401/$370–400), META (~$596/$580–630), CRM (~$179/$160–205), NVDA (~$210/$210–235), NEE (~$84/$82–88). PEGs 0.53–0.89 on core positions. DDOG (~$199) above its zone — quality override permits 3–5% starters only.
  • Above zoneTSM, COHR, GEV, AMD, ALAB, SNDK, MU (~$985, 50%+ above zone), BE, DDOG, AAOI (~$203), GOOGL (~$365) all above entry zones. NBIS initiated after CapEx confirmation.
  • SentimentActive picks now ~46.6% (near 50% target). Cash ~18.8%. Remaining deployment should be selective — wait for dips in held names or new thesis-breaking events.
  • EventsNVDA, CRM, AVGO Q prints all done. Upcoming: MU 24 Jun (cyclical-margin signal), hyperscalers late Jul, AAOI 6 Aug. Reserve remaining dry powder for post-MU reaction and hyperscaler gap-down opportunities.
WHY 18%

Active picks now ~46.6% — near the 50% target. Remaining ~18% cash provides a buffer for post-MU-print positioning (24 Jun), hyperscaler down-gaps (late Jul), and any tail risk. Below 15%: too tight given MU cyclical-reversion risk and upcoming catalysts. Above 22%: opportunity cost at ~6% per quarter is meaningful when in-zone names like META, AVGO, NVDA, and CRM are available now.

RE-RATE TRIGGERS
  • S&P drawdown >7% from 8 May high → accelerate deployment to ~10% cash.
  • Held name retests support post-earnings (MU post-24 Jun print dip, NVDA $210, META $580, AVGO $370, GOOGL $340) → redirect dry powder into the dip.
  • VIX >25 sustained or two of (NVDA, CRM, AVGO, MU, META) miss → step back to 20–25% cash, wait for clarity.
  • MU 24 Jun signals margin peak or forward guide cut → trim MU above $1,000, raise cash 3–5pp. Also consider trimming SIMO on same print.