| Ticker | Layer | Price | Mkt Cap | Fwd P/E | Rev Growth | PEG | Thesis | Quality | R/R | Verdict | Entry Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Compute | ~$210 | ~$5.1T | 19× fwd | +85% | 0.41 | A | B+ | B+ | Add (pullback) | $210–235 (at zone bottom · Q1 ✓) |
| TSM | AI Foundry | ~$410 | $2.1T | 25.8× | +41% | 0.53 | A | A | B− | Add (pullback) | $340–375 (above · stage) |
| AVGO | AI Custom Silicon | ~$401 | $1.93T | ~32× | +48% (+143% AI) | ~0.53 | A | A | A− | Strong Add | $370–400 (in) |
| CRM | AI Enterprise SW | ~$179 | $146B | 13.6× | +12% | 0.86 | B+ | A− | A | Strong Add | $160–205 (in) |
| NOW | AI Workflow | $91.18 | $93.9B | ~22× | +19% CC | 0.83 | A | A | A− | Hold · Stage <$90 | $80–95 (in) |
| DDOG | AI Observability | ~$199 | ~$63B | 78–86× | +32% | 3.35 | A− | A− | B− | Add (pullback) | $175–190 (above) |
| GOOGL | AI Software | ~$365 | ~$4.43T | 23× | +30% | 0.9 | A− | A | C+ | Hold | $320–340 (15–20% off) |
| COHR | AI Optics | ~$405 | ~$81B | ~45× | +20.5% | 1.2 | A | B+ | C+ | Add (pullback) | $290–330 (above) |
| NEE | AI Power | ~$84 | ~$175B | 23.9× | +10% EPS | 3.1 | A− | B+ | C+ | Add (pullback) | $82–88 (in zone) |
| PLTR | AI Software | $134.77 | $324B | 88× | +85% | 1.78 | B | A | D | Watch | $100–115 (above · monitor) |
| MU | HBM Memory | ~$985 | ~$1.1T | ~10× ⚠ | +196% ⚠ | <0.2 ⚠ | A | A | C+ | Hold · No Add | $600–650 (50%+ above · trim zone) |
| SIMO | NAND Controller | ~$265 | ~$9.1B | 30.3× ⚠ | +105% ⚠ | 0.49 ⚠ | B+ | B | C+ | Watch | $185–$215 (26-31% below) |
| AMD | AI Accelerator | ~$436 | ~$706B | 53× | +38% | 1.02 | B+ | A− | C+ | Add (pullback) | $380–420 (above) |
| ALAB | AI Connectivity | ~$223 | ~$45B ⚠ | 80–82× | +93% | 2.34 | B+ | A− | C+ | Watch | $175–200 (above) |
| SNDK | NAND Memory | ~$1,413 | ~$209B | 9–12× | +251% ⚠ | Low ⚠ | A− | A | C+ | Add (pullback) | $1,200–1,350 (pullback) |
| AAOI | AI Optics & 800G | ~$203 | ~$16.2B | N/A (loss) | +51% | N/A | B+ | B | C | Watch | $120–140 (post-Q2) |
| LITE | AI Optics / EML | ~$993 | ~$71–77B | 80–95×⚠ | +90.1% | N/M | A | A− | D | Watch | $780–870 (above) |
| META | AI Social & Ads | ~$596 | $1.55T | ~20× | +33% | 0.89 | A | A | A− | Strong Add | $580–630 (in) |
| NBIS | AI Neocloud / GPU Infra | ~$233 | ~$58B | ~13–15× P/S | +547% | N/M | B+ | B | C | Watch | Entry suspended (CapEx) |
| MXL | AI Foundry & Connectivity / Optical DSP | ~$79 | ~$7.1B | ~53× Fwd P/E | +43% | 2.0% ⚠ | B+ | C+ | C+ | Watch | $45–58 (above zone) |
| GEV | AI Power | ~$1,062 | ~$287B | ~55× | +16% Q1 | High | A | A− | C+ | Add (pullback) | $980–1,050 (above) |
| BE | AI Power | ~$301 | ~$86.6B | ~135× | +130% | 3.37 | B+ | B | D | Watch | $180–220 (above) |
| DRAM | DRAM/HBM/NAND ETF | ~$63 | ETF | N/A (ETF) | Memory cycle | N/A | A | B+ | B | Hold · No Add | Combined memory ceiling <12% NLV |
| SITM | MEMS Precision Timing | ~$675 | ~$17.5B | ~100× nGAAP | +88% Q1 ✓ | 2.98 ⚠ | A− | A− | C+ | Hold · Accum weakness | $480–560 (above · 5 Aug Q2 gate) |
Dim grades reflect three-dimension framework (Thesis Durability · Business Quality · Risk/Reward at Current Price). Verdict pill follows SKILL.md verdict table. "(in)" = current price inside entry zone · "(above)" = price above zone.
📅 Key Catalysts — Jun to Aug 2026
| Date | Ticker | Event | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May ✓ | NBIS | Q1 2026 earnings — reported | Beat: ARR trajectory on track, Meta/MSFT contracts confirmed. CapEx run-rate ($16–20B) confirmed — validates suspension of entry. Stock +26% post-print to ~$233. Entry remains suspended pending CapEx execution clarity. |
| 20 May ✓ | NVDA | Q1 FY27 earnings — reported | Reported. Entry zone updated to $210–235 post-print. Stock pulled back to ~$210 — now at zone bottom. Update ticker page for full results. |
| 27 May ✓ | CRM | Q1 FY27 earnings — reported | Reported. Watch Agentforce ARR trajectory and organic growth ex-Informatica confirmation. Update ticker page for full results. |
| Late May ✓ | NOW | Q1 print — reported | Reported. Pro Plus ACV attach and Federal renewal pacing are thesis-confirmation metrics. Update ticker page for full results. |
| 3 Jun ✓ | AVGO | Q2 FY26 earnings — reported | Beat-and-raise: $22.19B rev, AI semis $10.8B (+143%), 46% FCF margin, Q3 guided $29.4B, AI bookings >$30B. Stock -15% post-print on FY27 $100B XPU target reiteration (not raise) — created $370–400 entry zone. |
| 17–18 Jun | FOMC | June meeting + dot plot | Rate path. High-multiple software (PLTR 88×, DDOG 82×, ALAB 81×) is the rate-sensitive cohort. |
| 24 Jun | MU | Q3 FY26 earnings | HBM ASP trajectory, FY27 capex, NAND commentary. Cyclical-margin reversion — peak signal. |
| ~16 Jul | TSM | Q2 2026 earnings + monthly revenue | N3/N2 mix, AI accelerator revenue share, CoWoS capacity. Leading indicator for the rest. |
| 22 Jul | NEE | Q2 2026 earnings | NEER origination cadence, IRA tax-credit policy update, hyperscaler PPA additions. |
| ~22 Jul | GEV | Q2 2026 earnings | Gas turbine bookings, $163B backlog conversion, FCF guide sustainability after Q1 $4.8B beat. |
| Late Jul | META | Q2 earnings | Reels monetisation, 2027 capex envelope, Llama 4 enterprise commentary. |
| Late Jul | GOOGL | Q2 earnings | Cloud margin, Search resilience vs AI Overviews cannibalisation, TPU/Anthropic commentary. |
| 28–29 Jul | FOMC | July meeting | Second cut signal vs sticky-inflation hold. Lands inside earnings window — compounding volatility. |
| Early Aug | AMD | Q2 earnings | MI355X revenue contribution, MI450 ramp commentary, Meta 6GW + OAI 6GW updates. |
| Early Aug | PLTR | Q2 earnings | US commercial deceleration check, ongoing insider activity, Anthropic JV impact on Foundry pipeline. |
| 6 Aug | AAOI | Q2 2026 earnings | 800G shipment cadence (target 110K+ units), Texas fab yield ramp, GM trajectory toward 35% YE26. Entry-zone gate. |
🎯 Top 5 Opportunities — Actionable Now
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1Cleanest large-cap setup. 20× fwd P/E, +33% YoY rev, ad impressions +19% × price-per-ad +12% — both volume and price compound simultaneously. Capex-anxiety obscures that core monetisation is accelerating. Current ~$596, mid-zone ($580–630). No earnings until late Jul — lowest-event-risk Strong Add in the universe.
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213.6× fwd P/E for an enterprise SaaS leader is a value setup masquerading as software. Agentforce $800M ARR (+169% YoY) is income-statement revenue, not pipeline. Q1 FY27 reported (27 May) — update ticker page for results. Dim 1 capped at B+ until organic growth re-acceleration (FY27 H2 guide) is confirmed. Asymmetric: Agentforce traction = rerating; disappointment = own a $146B FCF compounder at 11× EV/FCF.
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3Q2 FY26 (3 Jun) was a clean beat-and-raise — revenue $22.19B, AI semis $10.8B (+143%), record 46% FCF margin, software back to +9%, Q3 guided $29.4B above Street, networking at 40% of AI revenue, AI bookings >$30B vs $10.8B shipped. The stock fell ~15% to ~$397 purely because Hock Tan reiterated rather than raised the FY27 $100B chip target — handing the pullback the prior verdict was waiting for. Now in the $370–400 zone with Dim 2 upgraded to A and Dim 3 to A−. Add toward 6–8% here; reserve further adds for <$370.
-
4A/A/A− on three dimensions — best-balanced grade card in the table. Q1 reported (late May) — update ticker page for results. Entry zone $80–95 remains; target below $90 for re-entry or add. Pro Plus ACV attach + Federal renewal pacing are the two metrics that confirm the FY27 thesis.
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5Foundry monopoly on leading-edge nodes — Apple, NVDA, AMD anchored, 59% HPC mix. +41% rev growth at PEG 0.53 is the cheapest scale-vs-multiple combination in the table. ~$410 sits ~9% above zone; per the SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A justifies staged starter now (3–5%) with discipline to add to target weight only on retest of $375 or post-Q2 (16 Jul) print dip.
⚠️ Caution — What to Avoid
MACRO & REGIME
- !AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Cohort drawdowns of 15–20% historically follow record-print weeks. Stage entries over 6–8 weeks; never lump-sum at the top.
- !Memory cycle may run longer than expected — but margins revert. SNDK Q3 FY26 management confirmed NAND market "more undersupplied in Q3 than Q2," with demand above supply through CY2026. SNDK upgraded to Add (pullback); MU remains Hold. Do not add both simultaneously — combined memory exposure would exceed prudent cycle-risk limits. Cyclical margin reversion is when-not-if: NAND GMs compressed from ~65% peak to 25–35% in the 2022–23 downcycle.
- !Pre-earnings asymmetry is bad. NVDA (20 May), CRM (27 May), and AVGO (3 Jun) have printed. Remaining: MU (24 Jun), hyperscalers (late Jul), AAOI (6 Aug) carry 8–12% implied moves. Resist adding inside the 5-day pre-print window — better risk/reward post-print, off the gap.
- !Concentration is a hidden risk. Closing the active-picks gap by adding two more software names creates correlated AI-capex exposure. Spread across foundry / optics / software / power.
- !Insider clusters worth respecting. PLTR insiders sold $432.9M in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares (position exited). AAOI insider selling $29.6M / 90d. AVGO Hock Tan 200K shares sold/contributed since Dec. Treat as a hard signal, not noise.
- !"In entry zone" ≠ "must buy now." The zone is permission, not obligation. If Dim 1 + Dim 2 + macro all line up, take it. If two of three are weak, wait for confirmation. Per SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A/A+ names above zone get a 3–5% starter — not a full skip.
- !Single-stock cap 20%. Hard rule. MU is the closest current breach risk — let it run, but the next add goes elsewhere.
TACTICAL — PER-TICKER
- ✗Add more MU above $1,000. Currently ~$985, well above prior $600–650 entry zone — has blown through the $850–900 trim trigger. Consider trimming incrementally above $1,000 to bank gains and manage cyclical-reversion risk. HBM tailwind is real but margin reversion is when-not-if. 24 Jun Q3 print is the next definitive signal.
- ⚠Re-enter PLTR without a margin of safety. Position exited; three risk vectors remain — 88× fwd P/E, $432.9M insider sales 90d (incl. Thiel 1.9M shares), and Anthropic's $1.5B enterprise-services JV as direct competition. Multiple-compression to ~$90 is a live scenario. Re-entry at $100–115 or below makes the math work; chasing above $130+ does not. 4 Aug Q2 print is the next re-evaluation gate.
- ✗Chase NVDA above $235 (top of entry zone). Q1 FY27 reported (20 May); entry zone updated to $210–235. Currently ~$210, near zone bottom — a better entry point than the pre-print $220 level. Add within $210–225; resist chasing above $235 ahead of Q2 FY27.
- ✗Treat NEE as an AI growth story. It's a utility with AI optionality at PEG 3.1. Add only for income and power hedge, not AI growth.
- ✗Add SNDK at market after the Q3 FY26 run-up. Q3 beat consensus by 29% ($5.95B actual vs $4.6B guide midpoint); Q4 guided $7.75–8.25B — well above prior Dec 2027 consensus of $4.19B. Verdict upgraded to Add (pullback). Wait for $1,200–1,350 zone before initiating. Stacking with MU creates correlated NAND/DRAM memory cyclicality — size ≤5% NLV on any entry.
- ✗Add AAOI before 6 Aug Q2 print. Currently ~$203, up +29% since last review — now 45% above the $120–140 entry zone. Insider selling $29.6M / 90d, Q1 slight miss ($151M vs $155M est), Texas fab ramp unvalidated. Q2 on 6 Aug is the gate; entry zone $120–140 only post-confirmation.
- ✗Deploy all capital at once. AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Stage over 6–8 weeks.
- ✗Add Bloom Energy (BE) at ~$301. Never GAAP-profitable, ~135× fwd P/E, PEG 3.37. AI fuel cell thesis aspirational not demonstrated. Entry zone $180–220 (~40% below current).
- ✗Add ARM at current price ($213+). PEG 4.87 — worst in the AI-chip basket. 11.46% short interest. NVDA at 26.5× / PEG 0.35 is a strictly better AI chip bet.
- ✗Chase AMD above $420. Currently ~$436, pulling back from $460 high — approaching zone but not yet there. Meta 6GW and OpenAI MI450 commitments are real but priced in. Wait for $380–420 zone before initiating.
💰 Suggested Cash Holding
18%
current · operating range 15–22% · floor 0% · ceiling 40%
▼ CURRENT 18%
0%10%20%30%40%
AGGRESSIVE
BALANCED
DEFENSIVE
CASH-HEAVY
REGIME INPUTS
- ValuationIn-zone names: AVGO (~$401/$370–400), META (~$596/$580–630), CRM (~$179/$160–205), NVDA (~$210/$210–235), NEE (~$84/$82–88). PEGs 0.53–0.89 on core positions. DDOG (~$199) above its zone — quality override permits 3–5% starters only.
- Above zoneTSM, COHR, GEV, AMD, ALAB, SNDK, MU (~$985, 50%+ above zone), BE, DDOG, AAOI (~$203), GOOGL (~$365) all above entry zones. NBIS initiated after CapEx confirmation.
- SentimentActive picks now ~46.6% (near 50% target). Cash ~18.8%. Remaining deployment should be selective — wait for dips in held names or new thesis-breaking events.
- EventsNVDA, CRM, AVGO Q prints all done. Upcoming: MU 24 Jun (cyclical-margin signal), hyperscalers late Jul, AAOI 6 Aug. Reserve remaining dry powder for post-MU reaction and hyperscaler gap-down opportunities.
WHY 18%
Active picks now ~46.6% — near the 50% target. Remaining ~18% cash provides a buffer for post-MU-print positioning (24 Jun), hyperscaler down-gaps (late Jul), and any tail risk. Below 15%: too tight given MU cyclical-reversion risk and upcoming catalysts. Above 22%: opportunity cost at ~6% per quarter is meaningful when in-zone names like META, AVGO, NVDA, and CRM are available now.
RE-RATE TRIGGERS
- ↓S&P drawdown >7% from 8 May high → accelerate deployment to ~10% cash.
- ↓Held name retests support post-earnings (MU post-24 Jun print dip, NVDA $210, META $580, AVGO $370, GOOGL $340) → redirect dry powder into the dip.
- ↑VIX >25 sustained or two of (NVDA, CRM, AVGO, MU, META) miss → step back to 20–25% cash, wait for clarity.
- ↑MU 24 Jun signals margin peak or forward guide cut → trim MU above $1,000, raise cash 3–5pp. Also consider trimming SIMO on same print.