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Last updated 2026-05-13
Ticker Layer Price Mkt Cap Fwd P/E Rev Growth PEG Thesis Quality R/R Verdict Entry Zone
NVDA AI Compute $220 $5.35T 26.5× +73% 0.35 A B+ B Add (pullback) $185–205 (above · 20 May EPS)
TSM AI Foundry ~$410 $2.1T 25.8× +41% 0.53 A A B− Add (pullback) $340–375 (above · stage)
AVGO AI Custom Silicon $428.43 $2.03T 35–38× +29% (+106% AI) ~0.7 A A− C+ Add (pullback) $400–430 (in)
CRM AI Enterprise SW ~$179 $146B 13.6× +12% 0.86 B+ A− A Strong Add $160–205 (in)
NOW AI Workflow $91.18 $93.9B ~22× +19% CC 0.83 A A A− Hold · Stage <$90 $80–95 (in)
DDOG AI Observability $186.88 $62B 78–86× +32% 3.35 A− A− B− Add (pullback) $175–190 (in)
GOOGL AI Software $385.81 $4.67T 23× +30% 0.9 A− A C+ Hold $320–340 (15–20% off)
COHR AI Optics ~$350 $68–74B ~45× +20.5% 1.2 A B+ C+ Add (pullback) $290–330 (above)
NEE AI Power $94.84 ~$198B 23.9× +10% EPS 3.1 A− B+ C+ Add (pullback) $82–88 (above)
PLTR AI Software $134.77 $324B 88× +85% 1.78 B A D Hold · No Add >$130 Reload $100–115
MU HBM Memory ~$777 $877B 7.7–8.1× +196% ⚠ <0.2 ⚠ A A C+ Hold · No Add $600–650 (above)
AMD AI Accelerator ~$460 ~$748B 53× +38% 1.02 B+ A− C+ Add (pullback) $380–420 (above)
ALAB AI Connectivity $207.35 ~$42B ⚠ 80–82× +93% 2.34 B+ A− C+ Watch $175–200 (above)
SNDK NAND Memory $1,398.52 ~$207B 9–12× +251% ⚠ Low ⚠ A− A C+ Add (pullback) $1,200–1,350 (pullback)
AAOI AI Optics & 800G $157.55 $12.6B N/A (loss) +51% N/A B+ B C Watch $120–140 (post-Q2)
LITE AI Optics / EML $1,053 ~$75–82B 80–95×⚠ +90.1% N/M A A− D Watch $780–870 (above)
META AI Social & Ads $598.86 $1.52T ~20× +33% 0.89 A A A− Strong Add $580–630 (in)
NBIS AI Neocloud / GPU Infra ~$185 ~$46B ~13–15× P/S +547% N/M B+ B C Watch $120–145 (above)
GEV AI Power $1,083.17 ~$293B ~55× +16% Q1 High A A− C+ Add (pullback) $980–1,050 (above)
BE AI Power $277.00 ~$79.9B ~135× +130% 3.37 B+ B D Watch $180–220 (above)
Dim grades reflect three-dimension framework (Thesis Durability · Business Quality · Risk/Reward at Current Price). Verdict pill follows SKILL.md verdict table. "(in)" = current price inside entry zone · "(above)" = price above zone.
📅 Key Catalysts — May to Aug 2026
Date Ticker Event What to watch
13 May NBIS Q1 2026 earnings (pre-mkt) ARR trajectory ($1.2B → $7–9B YE26 target), capex pace ($16–20B), Meta/MSFT contract details. Today.
20 May NVDA Q1 FY27 earnings Data centre revenue, Blackwell shipment cadence, China outlook. Bar is high — Goldman flagged. 7 trading days away.
27 May CRM Q1 FY27 earnings (AMC) Agentforce ARR ($800M base, +169%), organic growth ex-Informatica, cRPO. Sets bull case for 13.6× P/E rerating.
Late May NOW Q1 print Pro Plus ACV mix, US Federal renewal pacing, AI Agent attach commentary.
3 Jun AVGO Q2 FY26 earnings (AMC) Custom XPU revenue, Google TPU update, OpenAI Jericho financing. Validates 35–38× fwd P/E or punctures it.
17–18 Jun FOMC June meeting + dot plot Rate path. High-multiple software (PLTR 88×, DDOG 82×, ALAB 81×) is the rate-sensitive cohort.
24 Jun MU Q3 FY26 earnings HBM ASP trajectory, FY27 capex, NAND commentary. Cyclical-margin reversion — peak signal.
~16 Jul TSM Q2 2026 earnings + monthly revenue N3/N2 mix, AI accelerator revenue share, CoWoS capacity. Leading indicator for the rest.
22 Jul NEE Q2 2026 earnings NEER origination cadence, IRA tax-credit policy update, hyperscaler PPA additions.
~22 Jul GEV Q2 2026 earnings Gas turbine bookings, $163B backlog conversion, FCF guide sustainability after Q1 $4.8B beat.
Late Jul META Q2 earnings Reels monetisation, 2027 capex envelope, Llama 4 enterprise commentary.
Late Jul GOOGL Q2 earnings Cloud margin, Search resilience vs AI Overviews cannibalisation, TPU/Anthropic commentary.
28–29 Jul FOMC July meeting Second cut signal vs sticky-inflation hold. Lands inside earnings window — compounding volatility.
Early Aug AMD Q2 earnings MI355X revenue contribution, MI450 ramp commentary, Meta 6GW + OAI 6GW updates.
Early Aug PLTR Q2 earnings US commercial deceleration check, ongoing insider activity, Anthropic JV impact on Foundry pipeline.
6 Aug AAOI Q2 2026 earnings 800G shipment cadence (target 110K+ units), Texas fab yield ramp, GM trajectory toward 35% YE26. Entry-zone gate.
🎯 Top 5 Opportunities — Actionable Now
  1. 1
    META Strong Add A / A / A− · PEG 0.89 · entry $580–630 · in zone
    Cleanest large-cap setup. 20× fwd P/E, +33% YoY rev, ad impressions +19% × price-per-ad +12% — both volume and price compound simultaneously. Capex-anxiety obscures that core monetisation is accelerating. Current $598.86 mid-zone, no earnings catalyst until late Jul — this is the lowest-event-risk Strong Add in the universe.
  2. 2
    CRM Strong Add B+ / A− / A · PEG 0.86 · entry $160–205 · in zone
    13.6× fwd P/E for an enterprise SaaS leader is a value setup masquerading as software. Agentforce $800M ARR (+169% YoY) is income-statement revenue, not pipeline. 27 May print is the catalyst — Dim 1 capped at B+ until organic growth re-acceleration (FY27 H2 guide) is delivered. Asymmetric: modest Agentforce traction = rerating; disappointment = own a $146B FCF compounder at 11× EV/FCF.
  3. 3
    AVGO Add (pullback) A / A− / C+ · PEG ~0.7 · entry $400–430 · in zone (top)
    $73B AI backlog contractually locked across six hyperscalers (Google TPU to 2031, Anthropic 1→3GW, Meta MTIA >1GW, OpenAI 10GW). Hock Tan award triggered only at $60–120B AI revenue through FY30 — falsifiable contractual anchor. Current $428.43 sits at top of $400–430 zone. Initiate now, reload aggressively on retest of $370–400. 3 Jun Q2 print validates or punctures the 35–38× fwd P/E.
  4. 4
    NOW Hold · Stage <$90 A / A / A− · PEG 0.83 · entry $80–95 · in zone
    A/A/A− on three dimensions — best-balanced grade card in the table. Currently 5.5% NLV holding; current price $91.18 sits inside $80–95 zone. Late May Q1 print is the trigger to scale up below $90 — until then, the position is sized correctly. Pro Plus ACV attach + Federal renewal pacing are the two metrics that confirm the FY27 thesis.
  5. 5
    TSM Add (pullback) A / A / B− · PEG 0.53 · entry $340–375 · ~9% above
    Foundry monopoly on leading-edge nodes — Apple, NVDA, AMD anchored, 59% HPC mix. +41% rev growth at PEG 0.53 is the cheapest scale-vs-multiple combination in the table. ~$410 sits ~9% above zone; per the SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A justifies staged starter now (3–5%) with discipline to add to target weight only on retest of $375 or post-Q2 (16 Jul) print dip.
⚠️ Caution — What to Avoid
MACRO & REGIME
  • !AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Cohort drawdowns of 15–20% historically follow record-print weeks. Stage entries over 6–8 weeks; never lump-sum at the top.
  • !Memory cycle may run longer than expected — but margins revert. SNDK Q3 FY26 management confirmed NAND market "more undersupplied in Q3 than Q2," with demand above supply through CY2026. SNDK upgraded to Add (pullback); MU remains Hold. Do not add both simultaneously — combined memory exposure would exceed prudent cycle-risk limits. Cyclical margin reversion is when-not-if: NAND GMs compressed from ~65% peak to 25–35% in the 2022–23 downcycle.
  • !Pre-earnings asymmetry is bad. Implied moves on NVDA (20 May), CRM (27 May), AVGO (3 Jun), MU (24 Jun), hyperscalers (late Jul) are 8–12%. Resist adding inside the 5-day pre-print window — better risk/reward post-print, off the gap.
  • !Concentration is a hidden risk. Closing the active-picks gap by adding two more software names creates correlated AI-capex exposure. Spread across foundry / optics / software / power.
  • !Insider clusters worth respecting. PLTR insiders sold $432.9M in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares. AAOI insider selling $29.6M / 90d. AVGO Hock Tan 200K shares sold/contributed since Dec. Treat as a hard signal, not noise — they have information you don't.
  • !"In entry zone" ≠ "must buy now." The zone is permission, not obligation. If Dim 1 + Dim 2 + macro all line up, take it. If two of three are weak, wait for confirmation. Per SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A/A+ names above zone get a 3–5% starter — not a full skip.
  • !Single-stock cap 20%. Hard rule. MU is the closest current breach risk — let it run, but the next add goes elsewhere.
TACTICAL — PER-TICKER
  • ✗Chase MU above $760. Currently ~$777, consensus PT $483–533 below spot. Wait for the 24 Jun Q3 print; consider trim trigger at $850–900.
  • ✗Add PLTR above $130. 88× fwd P/E into Anthropic's $1.5B enterprise-services JV launch (4 May 2026), $432.9M insider sales in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares — asymmetry is wrong. Reload zone $100–115.
  • ✗Add NVDA above $215 ahead of 20 May (7 trading days). Goldman flagged the bar is high; current $220 above $185–205 zone. Better risk/reward post-print, off any gap.
  • ✗Treat NEE as an AI growth story. It's a utility with AI optionality at PEG 3.1. Add only for income and power hedge, not AI growth.
  • ✗Add SNDK at market after the Q3 FY26 run-up. Q3 beat consensus by 29% ($5.95B actual vs $4.6B guide midpoint); Q4 guided $7.75–8.25B — well above prior Dec 2027 consensus of $4.19B. Verdict upgraded to Add (pullback). Wait for $1,200–1,350 zone before initiating. Stacking with MU creates correlated NAND/DRAM memory cyclicality — size ≤5% NLV on any entry.
  • ✗Add AAOI before 6 Aug Q2 print. Insider selling $29.6M / 90d, Q1 slight miss ($151M vs $155M est), Texas fab ramp unvalidated. Q2 is the gate. Entry zone $120–140 only post-confirmation.
  • ✗Deploy all capital at once. AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Stage over 6–8 weeks.
  • ✗Add Bloom Energy (BE) at $277. Never GAAP-profitable, ~135× fwd P/E, PEG 3.37. AI fuel cell thesis aspirational not demonstrated. Entry zone $180–220 (~35% below).
  • ✗Add ARM at current price ($213+). PEG 4.87 — worst in the AI-chip basket. 11.46% short interest. NVDA at 26.5× / PEG 0.35 is a strictly better AI chip bet.
  • ✗Chase AMD above $420. Currently ~$460. Up 327% in 52 weeks. Meta 6GW and OpenAI MI450 commitments are real but priced in. Wait for $380–420 zone before initiating.
  • ✗Buy PSTG (Pure Storage). Single Meta customer dependency ($30M license at 90% margin) with a credible Kerrisdale short thesis arguing QLC is not broadly price-competitive. Better memory/storage exposure through MU.
  • ✗Buy WDC or STX at peak. WDC +845%, STX +711% in 52 weeks. Structural rerating has happened. Late-cycle. Better entry only on a 25–30% drawdown.
💰 Suggested Cash Holding
15%
target · operating range 12–18% · floor 0% · ceiling 40%
▼ TARGET 15%
0%10%20%30%40%
AGGRESSIVE
BALANCED
DEFENSIVE
CASH-HEAVY
REGIME INPUTS
  • ValuationIn-zone names: META ($598/$580–630), CRM ($179/$160–205), AVGO ($428/$400–430), NOW ($91/$80–95), DDOG ($187/$175–190). PEGs 0.83–0.89. Argues to deploy into these five.
  • Above zoneNVDA, TSM, COHR, GEV, NEE, AMD, ALAB, SNDK, NBIS, MU, LITE, BE all trade above entry zones. Pre-earnings names (NVDA, CRM, AVGO) carry asymmetric tail risk through 3 Jun.
  • SentimentCohort euphoria week of 8 May — crypto, memory, custom silicon all near 52W highs. Tilt slightly defensive, not panic-cash.
  • EventsNBIS today, NVDA 20 May, CRM 27 May, AVGO 3 Jun, MU 24 Jun, hyperscalers late Jul. Each carries 8–12% implied moves. Reserve dry powder for post-earnings down-gaps.
WHY 15%

15% balances structural opportunity (5 in-zone Strong Add / Add candidates) against tactical caution (record-high week + clustered earnings). Below 12%: too aggressive given upcoming print risk — leaves no ammo for down-gaps. Above 18%: opportunity cost compounds at ~6% per quarter against the 26% target CAGR.

RE-RATE TRIGGERS
  • ↓S&P drawdown >7% from 8 May high → accelerate deployment to ~10% cash.
  • ↓Held name retests support post-earnings (MU $650, PLTR $115, NVDA $195, NOW $85) → redirect dry powder into existing position.
  • ↑VIX >25 sustained or two of (NVDA, CRM, AVGO, MU, META) miss → step back to 20–25% cash, wait for clarity.
  • ↑Memory ASPs roll over on 24 Jun MU print → trim memory exposure, raise cash 3–5pp.