| Ticker | Layer | Price | Mkt Cap | Fwd P/E | Rev Growth | PEG | Thesis | Quality | R/R | Verdict | Entry Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Compute | $220 | $5.35T | 26.5× | +73% | 0.35 | A | B+ | B | Add (pullback) | $185–205 (above · 20 May EPS) |
| TSM | AI Foundry | ~$410 | $2.1T | 25.8× | +41% | 0.53 | A | A | B− | Add (pullback) | $340–375 (above · stage) |
| AVGO | AI Custom Silicon | $428.43 | $2.03T | 35–38× | +29% (+106% AI) | ~0.7 | A | A− | C+ | Add (pullback) | $400–430 (in) |
| CRM | AI Enterprise SW | ~$179 | $146B | 13.6× | +12% | 0.86 | B+ | A− | A | Strong Add | $160–205 (in) |
| NOW | AI Workflow | $91.18 | $93.9B | ~22× | +19% CC | 0.83 | A | A | A− | Hold · Stage <$90 | $80–95 (in) |
| DDOG | AI Observability | $186.88 | $62B | 78–86× | +32% | 3.35 | A− | A− | B− | Add (pullback) | $175–190 (in) |
| GOOGL | AI Software | $385.81 | $4.67T | 23× | +30% | 0.9 | A− | A | C+ | Hold | $320–340 (15–20% off) |
| COHR | AI Optics | ~$350 | $68–74B | ~45× | +20.5% | 1.2 | A | B+ | C+ | Add (pullback) | $290–330 (above) |
| NEE | AI Power | $94.84 | ~$198B | 23.9× | +10% EPS | 3.1 | A− | B+ | C+ | Add (pullback) | $82–88 (above) |
| PLTR | AI Software | $134.77 | $324B | 88× | +85% | 1.78 | B | A | D | Hold · No Add >$130 | Reload $100–115 |
| MU | HBM Memory | ~$777 | $877B | 7.7–8.1× | +196% ⚠ | <0.2 ⚠ | A | A | C+ | Hold · No Add | $600–650 (above) |
| AMD | AI Accelerator | ~$460 | ~$748B | 53× | +38% | 1.02 | B+ | A− | C+ | Add (pullback) | $380–420 (above) |
| ALAB | AI Connectivity | $207.35 | ~$42B ⚠ | 80–82× | +93% | 2.34 | B+ | A− | C+ | Watch | $175–200 (above) |
| SNDK | NAND Memory | $1,398.52 | ~$207B | 9–12× | +251% ⚠ | Low ⚠ | A− | A | C+ | Add (pullback) | $1,200–1,350 (pullback) |
| AAOI | AI Optics & 800G | $157.55 | $12.6B | N/A (loss) | +51% | N/A | B+ | B | C | Watch | $120–140 (post-Q2) |
| LITE | AI Optics / EML | $1,053 | ~$75–82B | 80–95×⚠ | +90.1% | N/M | A | A− | D | Watch | $780–870 (above) |
| META | AI Social & Ads | $598.86 | $1.52T | ~20× | +33% | 0.89 | A | A | A− | Strong Add | $580–630 (in) |
| NBIS | AI Neocloud / GPU Infra | ~$185 | ~$46B | ~13–15× P/S | +547% | N/M | B+ | B | C | Watch | $120–145 (above) |
| GEV | AI Power | $1,083.17 | ~$293B | ~55× | +16% Q1 | High | A | A− | C+ | Add (pullback) | $980–1,050 (above) |
| BE | AI Power | $277.00 | ~$79.9B | ~135× | +130% | 3.37 | B+ | B | D | Watch | $180–220 (above) |
Dim grades reflect three-dimension framework (Thesis Durability · Business Quality · Risk/Reward at Current Price). Verdict pill follows SKILL.md verdict table. "(in)" = current price inside entry zone · "(above)" = price above zone.
📅 Key Catalysts — May to Aug 2026
| Date | Ticker | Event | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May | NBIS | Q1 2026 earnings (pre-mkt) | ARR trajectory ($1.2B → $7–9B YE26 target), capex pace ($16–20B), Meta/MSFT contract details. Today. |
| 20 May | NVDA | Q1 FY27 earnings | Data centre revenue, Blackwell shipment cadence, China outlook. Bar is high — Goldman flagged. 7 trading days away. |
| 27 May | CRM | Q1 FY27 earnings (AMC) | Agentforce ARR ($800M base, +169%), organic growth ex-Informatica, cRPO. Sets bull case for 13.6× P/E rerating. |
| Late May | NOW | Q1 print | Pro Plus ACV mix, US Federal renewal pacing, AI Agent attach commentary. |
| 3 Jun | AVGO | Q2 FY26 earnings (AMC) | Custom XPU revenue, Google TPU update, OpenAI Jericho financing. Validates 35–38× fwd P/E or punctures it. |
| 17–18 Jun | FOMC | June meeting + dot plot | Rate path. High-multiple software (PLTR 88×, DDOG 82×, ALAB 81×) is the rate-sensitive cohort. |
| 24 Jun | MU | Q3 FY26 earnings | HBM ASP trajectory, FY27 capex, NAND commentary. Cyclical-margin reversion — peak signal. |
| ~16 Jul | TSM | Q2 2026 earnings + monthly revenue | N3/N2 mix, AI accelerator revenue share, CoWoS capacity. Leading indicator for the rest. |
| 22 Jul | NEE | Q2 2026 earnings | NEER origination cadence, IRA tax-credit policy update, hyperscaler PPA additions. |
| ~22 Jul | GEV | Q2 2026 earnings | Gas turbine bookings, $163B backlog conversion, FCF guide sustainability after Q1 $4.8B beat. |
| Late Jul | META | Q2 earnings | Reels monetisation, 2027 capex envelope, Llama 4 enterprise commentary. |
| Late Jul | GOOGL | Q2 earnings | Cloud margin, Search resilience vs AI Overviews cannibalisation, TPU/Anthropic commentary. |
| 28–29 Jul | FOMC | July meeting | Second cut signal vs sticky-inflation hold. Lands inside earnings window — compounding volatility. |
| Early Aug | AMD | Q2 earnings | MI355X revenue contribution, MI450 ramp commentary, Meta 6GW + OAI 6GW updates. |
| Early Aug | PLTR | Q2 earnings | US commercial deceleration check, ongoing insider activity, Anthropic JV impact on Foundry pipeline. |
| 6 Aug | AAOI | Q2 2026 earnings | 800G shipment cadence (target 110K+ units), Texas fab yield ramp, GM trajectory toward 35% YE26. Entry-zone gate. |
🎯 Top 5 Opportunities — Actionable Now
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1Cleanest large-cap setup. 20× fwd P/E, +33% YoY rev, ad impressions +19% × price-per-ad +12% — both volume and price compound simultaneously. Capex-anxiety obscures that core monetisation is accelerating. Current $598.86 mid-zone, no earnings catalyst until late Jul — this is the lowest-event-risk Strong Add in the universe.
-
213.6× fwd P/E for an enterprise SaaS leader is a value setup masquerading as software. Agentforce $800M ARR (+169% YoY) is income-statement revenue, not pipeline. 27 May print is the catalyst — Dim 1 capped at B+ until organic growth re-acceleration (FY27 H2 guide) is delivered. Asymmetric: modest Agentforce traction = rerating; disappointment = own a $146B FCF compounder at 11× EV/FCF.
-
3$73B AI backlog contractually locked across six hyperscalers (Google TPU to 2031, Anthropic 1→3GW, Meta MTIA >1GW, OpenAI 10GW). Hock Tan award triggered only at $60–120B AI revenue through FY30 — falsifiable contractual anchor. Current $428.43 sits at top of $400–430 zone. Initiate now, reload aggressively on retest of $370–400. 3 Jun Q2 print validates or punctures the 35–38× fwd P/E.
-
4A/A/A− on three dimensions — best-balanced grade card in the table. Currently 5.5% NLV holding; current price $91.18 sits inside $80–95 zone. Late May Q1 print is the trigger to scale up below $90 — until then, the position is sized correctly. Pro Plus ACV attach + Federal renewal pacing are the two metrics that confirm the FY27 thesis.
-
5Foundry monopoly on leading-edge nodes — Apple, NVDA, AMD anchored, 59% HPC mix. +41% rev growth at PEG 0.53 is the cheapest scale-vs-multiple combination in the table. ~$410 sits ~9% above zone; per the SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A justifies staged starter now (3–5%) with discipline to add to target weight only on retest of $375 or post-Q2 (16 Jul) print dip.
⚠️ Caution — What to Avoid
MACRO & REGIME
- !AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Cohort drawdowns of 15–20% historically follow record-print weeks. Stage entries over 6–8 weeks; never lump-sum at the top.
- !Memory cycle may run longer than expected — but margins revert. SNDK Q3 FY26 management confirmed NAND market "more undersupplied in Q3 than Q2," with demand above supply through CY2026. SNDK upgraded to Add (pullback); MU remains Hold. Do not add both simultaneously — combined memory exposure would exceed prudent cycle-risk limits. Cyclical margin reversion is when-not-if: NAND GMs compressed from ~65% peak to 25–35% in the 2022–23 downcycle.
- !Pre-earnings asymmetry is bad. Implied moves on NVDA (20 May), CRM (27 May), AVGO (3 Jun), MU (24 Jun), hyperscalers (late Jul) are 8–12%. Resist adding inside the 5-day pre-print window — better risk/reward post-print, off the gap.
- !Concentration is a hidden risk. Closing the active-picks gap by adding two more software names creates correlated AI-capex exposure. Spread across foundry / optics / software / power.
- !Insider clusters worth respecting. PLTR insiders sold $432.9M in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares. AAOI insider selling $29.6M / 90d. AVGO Hock Tan 200K shares sold/contributed since Dec. Treat as a hard signal, not noise — they have information you don't.
- !"In entry zone" ≠ "must buy now." The zone is permission, not obligation. If Dim 1 + Dim 2 + macro all line up, take it. If two of three are weak, wait for confirmation. Per SKILL.md quality override, Dim 1 A/A+ names above zone get a 3–5% starter — not a full skip.
- !Single-stock cap 20%. Hard rule. MU is the closest current breach risk — let it run, but the next add goes elsewhere.
TACTICAL — PER-TICKER
- ✗Chase MU above $760. Currently ~$777, consensus PT $483–533 below spot. Wait for the 24 Jun Q3 print; consider trim trigger at $850–900.
- ✗Add PLTR above $130. 88× fwd P/E into Anthropic's $1.5B enterprise-services JV launch (4 May 2026), $432.9M insider sales in 90 days incl. Thiel 1.9M shares — asymmetry is wrong. Reload zone $100–115.
- ✗Add NVDA above $215 ahead of 20 May (7 trading days). Goldman flagged the bar is high; current $220 above $185–205 zone. Better risk/reward post-print, off any gap.
- ✗Treat NEE as an AI growth story. It's a utility with AI optionality at PEG 3.1. Add only for income and power hedge, not AI growth.
- ✗Add SNDK at market after the Q3 FY26 run-up. Q3 beat consensus by 29% ($5.95B actual vs $4.6B guide midpoint); Q4 guided $7.75–8.25B — well above prior Dec 2027 consensus of $4.19B. Verdict upgraded to Add (pullback). Wait for $1,200–1,350 zone before initiating. Stacking with MU creates correlated NAND/DRAM memory cyclicality — size ≤5% NLV on any entry.
- ✗Add AAOI before 6 Aug Q2 print. Insider selling $29.6M / 90d, Q1 slight miss ($151M vs $155M est), Texas fab ramp unvalidated. Q2 is the gate. Entry zone $120–140 only post-confirmation.
- ✗Deploy all capital at once. AI cohort hit record highs week of 8 May. Stage over 6–8 weeks.
- ✗Add Bloom Energy (BE) at $277. Never GAAP-profitable, ~135× fwd P/E, PEG 3.37. AI fuel cell thesis aspirational not demonstrated. Entry zone $180–220 (~35% below).
- ✗Add ARM at current price ($213+). PEG 4.87 — worst in the AI-chip basket. 11.46% short interest. NVDA at 26.5× / PEG 0.35 is a strictly better AI chip bet.
- ✗Chase AMD above $420. Currently ~$460. Up 327% in 52 weeks. Meta 6GW and OpenAI MI450 commitments are real but priced in. Wait for $380–420 zone before initiating.
- ✗Buy PSTG (Pure Storage). Single Meta customer dependency ($30M license at 90% margin) with a credible Kerrisdale short thesis arguing QLC is not broadly price-competitive. Better memory/storage exposure through MU.
- ✗Buy WDC or STX at peak. WDC +845%, STX +711% in 52 weeks. Structural rerating has happened. Late-cycle. Better entry only on a 25–30% drawdown.
💰 Suggested Cash Holding
15%
target · operating range 12–18% · floor 0% · ceiling 40%
▼ TARGET 15%
0%10%20%30%40%
AGGRESSIVE
BALANCED
DEFENSIVE
CASH-HEAVY
REGIME INPUTS
- ValuationIn-zone names: META ($598/$580–630), CRM ($179/$160–205), AVGO ($428/$400–430), NOW ($91/$80–95), DDOG ($187/$175–190). PEGs 0.83–0.89. Argues to deploy into these five.
- Above zoneNVDA, TSM, COHR, GEV, NEE, AMD, ALAB, SNDK, NBIS, MU, LITE, BE all trade above entry zones. Pre-earnings names (NVDA, CRM, AVGO) carry asymmetric tail risk through 3 Jun.
- SentimentCohort euphoria week of 8 May — crypto, memory, custom silicon all near 52W highs. Tilt slightly defensive, not panic-cash.
- EventsNBIS today, NVDA 20 May, CRM 27 May, AVGO 3 Jun, MU 24 Jun, hyperscalers late Jul. Each carries 8–12% implied moves. Reserve dry powder for post-earnings down-gaps.
WHY 15%
15% balances structural opportunity (5 in-zone Strong Add / Add candidates) against tactical caution (record-high week + clustered earnings). Below 12%: too aggressive given upcoming print risk — leaves no ammo for down-gaps. Above 18%: opportunity cost compounds at ~6% per quarter against the 26% target CAGR.
RE-RATE TRIGGERS
- ↓S&P drawdown >7% from 8 May high → accelerate deployment to ~10% cash.
- ↓Held name retests support post-earnings (MU $650, PLTR $115, NVDA $195, NOW $85) → redirect dry powder into existing position.
- ↑VIX >25 sustained or two of (NVDA, CRM, AVGO, MU, META) miss → step back to 20–25% cash, wait for clarity.
- ↑Memory ASPs roll over on 24 Jun MU print → trim memory exposure, raise cash 3–5pp.